Κυριακή 10 Φεβρουαρίου 2013

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 11 FEB - 16 FEB

The main events of next week are the rates announcements from the Bank of Japan and Jordan's(SNB president) speech.


EURUSD: The pair  had started a correction last week. after Mario Draghi's intervew. It has broken 1.3370 levle and inititate a sell signal. Notheless i expect  to consolidate  for the folowing days  between 1.33-1.36

EURJPY:   The pair had a drop affected by profittaking and  the fall in eurusd and usdjpy .  I expect a further decline to 120 level before  resuming again an uptrend

EURAUD: The pair is also affected by the fall in eursud. The fall may extend further but no lower that 1.28  Buliss bias remains and  i expect  it to  climb again higher

EURCHF: The pair has fall affter a rally . Nonetheless 1.2240 is a good support and i expect the currency to resume an uptrend

USDCHF:   The pair  still in consolidation with a sell bias

GBPUSD:  The pair  is in a sell mode . However last week we had a small  short squeeze which may  continue a little higher but no more than 1.60 . Expect the downtrend to resume  and new los to be made by the end of the week

USDJPY: The star of the recent weeks.  It seems that its time for a correction and it had topped iaround 94. I expect it to see lower this week.

AUDUSD: The pair has finally initiate a sell signals. I expect it see  lower this week . Target remains 1.0150-1.02 area





UPDATE ON MY OPEN TRADES -RAISING MY S/L ON GBPUSD

I will raise my s/l in my short  GBPUSD to 1.60

Κυριακή 3 Φεβρουαρίου 2013

TRADE IDEAS FOR THIS WEEK - SELL GBPUSD , AUDUSD

1) I will sell 0.1 lot GBPUSD at opening with s/l  1.59 and t/p 1.52

UPDATE 1: Order opened on 04/02/2013 at 1.5690

UPDATE 2: Position closed  on 20/02/20123 .Profit 490 pips

2) I will place pending stop sell 0.1 lot AUSUSD order  at 1.0358  with s/l 1.0460 and t/p 1.01. The order will be active only for this week.

UPDATE : Order opened  on 06/02/2013 at 1.0358

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 03 FEB - 09 FEB

The main events of next week are the rates announcements from the ECB, BOE and BOA. I expect GBP to face a lot of pressure against most of the crosses. Also ECB’s interview on Thursday may be very important and initiate a long due correction to EURUSD.

EURUSD: The pair continued rising for another week establishing strongly the uptrend/ 1.338-1.40 is the next critical area. None the less is overbought and a correction before another leg up is long overdue. Remain neutral on this pair as risk rewards payoffs are not good. 

EURJPY:   The pair continued its bullish frenzy run. It has broken decisively the psychological 120,123 levels and close the week just below another critical level (127).  However a correction is long overdue and we may see it this week. If it happens it will be very sharp

EURAUD: The pair is taking advantage of the rise in euro. Bullish bias has finally been established.  The pair has started a nice uptrend and may climb very quickly to 1.40

EURCHF: The pair has finally start trading higher reaching 1.25 level. It has established a strong uptrend and it is expected to go higher testing the 1.30 level

USDCHF:   The pair failed to establish a bullish momentum due to the strong rise of the euro .As a result it gave another new fresh sell signal.  However I don’t think that there is a lot potential on the downside 

GBPUSD:  The pair had a terrible closing last Friday validating our sell signal even further. I expect to be under a lot of pressure the week ahead. Critical levels are 1.60 on the upside. On the downside 1.5660 is a major level. If this breaks then we will see the pair to go to 1.54 -1.52 area

USDJPY: The star of the recent weeks. Managed to close above 92,50 levels for a second week .A correction is long overdue but not a clear sign yet as uptrend is still very strong. Not very clear picture

AUDUSD: The pair tried this week to break the 1.0368 level but failed. It remains in a range mode and but my system shows clear signals of weakness. As a result I believe that the pair may finally break the level 1.0368 this weak and initiate a nice sell signal.





END OF JANUARY P/L REPORT [ + 245 PIPS] -NO ACTIVE TRADES

During January i took two trades.

Long AUDUSD and Long EURAUD. I got stopped out  in the first one  (-140 pips) but i was succesful in the second one (+385 pips).

My initial capital starting  2013 was  11290 . At the end of first month my overall equity is  11.535 .






Παρασκευή 1 Φεβρουαρίου 2013

MARV FABER FEARS 1987 REDUX AS "MARKETS WILL PUNISH INTERVENTIONISTS" 25.01.2013

Below are parts of an intervew that Marc Faber gave on bloomberg and published iun the zerohedge site

 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-25/marc-faber-fears-1987-redux-markets-will-punish-interventionists

Faber: on whether he agrees with George Soros that Europe has been stabilized:

"It has been stabilized for now, but the big question as he said is the imbalances have not been solved and these could come back and harm the markets and the euro at some point in the future. In terms of stock markets, I have advocated one year ago between April and June of last year to buy European stocks in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and France because they were extremely depressed. Since then, the markets have rallied very sharply. Greece is up from the lows by 100%. That tells you anything can go up when you print money."
On whether he's getting out of European markets:

"Not really because we made the secular low roughly one year ago, but I have argued that it is the time right now to reduce equity positions. I think the markets are at the difficult juncture between overbought and a euphoric state. I am not ruling out that they could go up somewhat more like in 1987, going up 40% between January and August, but we also fell 40% in two months' time. So the gains were wiped out quickly. In March of 2009 we are close to 1500. We had already a huge bull market, and a lot of the good news has been discounted already."
On whether there will be a correction on the S&P:

"I think regardless of what the markets do, near-term, a correction is overdue and usually February is a seasonally weak month…It will be interesting to see how the correction unfolds."
On why he's not going big on any short in the market:

"The problem with shorting the markets nowadays is that you have this huge intervention by governments. Look at bonds of Italy Portugal and Spain--they rallied last year, there was a huge profit opportunity, and I admit that I missed it, but the profit opportunity came about as a result of government intervention. I feel the markets are -- some people say it is intervention. I can call it manipulation. If manipulation continues, you do not know how far they will go. The only thing I know is one day the markets will punish the interventionists, the Keynesians and the monetary that the Federal Reserve and ECB has enforced because the markets will be more powerful one day. How will this look like? Will the bond market collapse or equity markets become a bubble, which would be embarrassing for the Fed's sake if the U.S. market became a gigantic bubble and at the same time the economy does not recover."
On Tim Geithner's legacy and whether anything will change under Jack Lew:


"I doubt there will be much change. To be fair to Mr. Geithner, he inherited a colossal mess. he is involved in politics and he has to listen to what the politicians want to do. He did an ok job. Where it is not ok is that basically nobody that has committed financial fraud or contributed to the fraud was prosecuted."