Κυριακή 16 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

USDJPY CLOSED SUCCESSFULLY - T/P FILLED +400 PIPS

After 3 months  my trade was finally closed . It was a smooth trade and very  well  behaved allthough it took more time that i was anticipating. Although that many believed that the main driver for yen weakening would be BOJ finally it was political .... Election were announced for  16 December and  Noda 's party lost . The new leader is a bold supparter of a further drastic QE


R.DALIO'S INTERVEW ON CHARLI ROSE( NEW YORK TIMES)


Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, didn’t used to do many media appearances. But a series of big magazine profiles that focused on the intense culture of his Connecticut-based hedge fund seem to have eased the billionaire out of his shell.

On Thursday, Mr. Dalio appeared on Charlie Rose‘s program on PBS to talk about the economy, and to address the accusations that Bridgewater — which is governed by a set of rules laid out in Mr. Dalio’s business manifesto, “Principles” — is a cult of personality

“It’s a global macro firm,” said Mr. Dalio, who eschewed his usual wardrobe of khakis and untucked shirts for a dark suit and red tie.

For more than half an hour, Mr. Rose and Mr. Dalio talked about the state of the world economy. Mr. Dalio explained his oft-repeated “deleveraging” theory, in which debts rise relative to incomes in a nation until the country, under threat of default, takes stimulative actions to bring the debt-to-income ratio back to more stable levels. Mr. Dalio told the host he believed the United States is in a deleveraging process, but said that economic catastrophe could be averted if careful action is taken.

“The key is to spread it out as much as you can, to make sure it’s not disorderly” Mr. Dalio said of the deleveraging process. 

Mr. Rose asked Mr. Dalio, who has pledged to give away at least half his wealth as part of a giving pledge engineered by Warren E. Buffett, if he supported a so-called Buffett Rule that would raise taxes on the top income brackets. Mr. Dalio said that he did support the plan, but that he wanted to make sure his tax money was being put to good use.

“I’m going to give away a lot more than half my money,” said Mr. Dalio, who made more than $3 billion in 2010. “I’d be happy to give that to the government if the government put together programs that were like I’m giving away to charity, in which I believe the money is effectively used to help people.”

Mr. Dalio defended Bridgewater’s culture, which emphasizes radical honesty and encourages employees to criticize each other, by saying that it was “exactly the opposite of a cult.” He said that the firm’s culture of institutionalized bickering actually made it more productive.

“If people who are disagreeing can say, ‘Why do we disagree?’ and work through that conversation in an intelligent way to try to find out what’s true, you can learn, you can make progress,” he said. “It can be a fabulous thing.”

The Occupy Wall Street movement, a go-to topic for journalists interviewing financiers since the protests in Lower Manhattan began, also came up in the segment. Mr. Dalio said he understood the frustration expressed by the protesters, but added that he did not believe he had done anything to deserve the ire of the 99 percent.

“I think I did everything right,” he said. “I did well when others didn’t. I happen to earn one-fifth of the profits. I pay about a third in taxes, I give away about a third, and I follow the law. And if I’m doing something they think is incorrect, I’d like to know that.”

And despite his bearish outlook on the domestic economy, Mr. Dalio ended the interview on a caveat-laden note of hope. 

“If we can keep orderly, and not argue with each other, and not do disruptive things, and we don’t go down,” he said. “Maybe then it’ll be O.K.”

( http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/bridgewaters-dalio-i-think-i-did-everything-right/)

You can watch the full intervew here
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11957

JOHN TAYLOR : WHICH CURRENCIES TO INVEST IN?




RAY DALIO-COMMENT ON BARRON

"Barron's: I can't think of anyone who was earlier in describing the deleveraging and deflationary process that has been happening around the world.

Dalio: Let's call it a "D-process," which is different than a recession, and the only reason that people really don't understand this process is because it happens rarely. Everybody should, at this point, try to understand the depression process by reading about the Great Depression or the Latin American debt crisis or the Japanese experience so that it becomes part of their frame of reference.

Most people didn't live through any of those experiences, and what they have gotten used to is the recession dynamic, and so they are quick to presume the recession dynamic. It is very clear to me that we are in a D-process..."

QE TIMELINE

• November 25, 2008: Press Release: $100 Billion GSE direct obligations, $500 billion in MBS
• December 16, 2008 FOMC Statement: Evaluating benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury Securities

• January 28, 2009: FOMC Statement: FOMC Stands Ready to expand program.

• March 18, 2009: FOMC Statement: Expand MBS program to $1.25 trillion, buy up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities

• March 31, 2010: QE1 purchases were completed at the end of Q1 2010.

• August 27, 2010: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hints at QE2: Analysis: Bernanke paves the way for QE2

• November 3, 2010: FOMC Statement: $600 Billion QE2 announced.

• June 30, 2011: QE2 purchases were completed at the end of Q2 2011.

• September 21, 2011: "Operation Twist" announced. "The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less."

QE Timeline
• June 20, 2012: "Operation Twist" extended. "The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities."

• August 31, 2012: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hints at QE3:









the above article has been  kindly  borrowed by the following site: Calculated risk Blog
(http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/qe-timeline-update.html)

Κυριακή 9 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

UDPDATE ON MY TWO OPEN TRADES

USDJPY:  I beleive that is making a bullish flag  which is indicating the continuation of the trend  . I remain with my s/l at 81.50 and expect my t/p to be hit  at the begining of this week.



AUDUSD:This pair has not behaved as i was expecting. Although it has taken out the 1.0480 resistance it hasnt gained momentum closing the week at 1.0484.I will raise my s/l at 1.0320 and be vigilant to rethink and maybe  close it if it doesnt climb above 1.05 on Monday close.

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 10 DEC - 15 DEC

The two most important events of last week was ECB 's president interview on Thursday and Payrolls announcement on Friday. This week the market expects the FOMC meeting which will be the main event of the week. We are close to mid of December now and flows are getting thinner. This may result to sharp moves with no real direction.

EURUSD:  The pair took a bitten after Mario's Draghi interview last Thursday in which he implied that ECB will cut rates next month.. Nonetheless the currency is still in a buy mode since it trades above 1.2865 and as it can be seen in my system below both wave and trend remain bullish. As long as this level hold(daily closing)  my view remains for  1.3480 until end of month or first days of January 

EURJPY:  This pair mirrored EURUSD move since USDJPY remained in consolidation around 82.30area. I remain extremely bullish and even though we may see  a small retreat  in prices around 105 area i believe that the pair is still going to reach 110!

EURAUD: Although we are a slightly bullish bias since 1.2290 level holds, the system shows that most indicator are still negative. Overall we can say that if only breaks the 1.2290 we may becoming more confident that the pair will fall further.However there is not a clear picture for this pair at the moment

EURCHF: The pair had a spike at the beginning of last week reaching close to 1.22. However it then falls again. Although, it gives some indication that it is getting out of the come is still a very tricky pair. Someone could play the long side with a s/l at 1.2020 and t/p 1.22

USDCHF:  As I have already mentioned this pair is the alter ego of EURUSD. As a result since EURUSD is rising this pair  is falling and the opposite

GBPUSD:  The pair managed to change to uptrend mode last week. Nonetheless i am not very convinced and i don’t believe that it has a lot of a potential  in the upside. Not very clear picture for this pair either

USDJPY:  The pair is still in an uptrend. However it has stalled last week and it seems that it has been trapped between 81.60-82.80. Indicators are bullish and it remains to see which way will break first. If 81.60 breaks then we may see a further fall to 80.80 before the pair resume its uptrend. If in the other hand it break 82.80 then the pair gains momentum and it will climb to 84.00 very  fast

AUDUSD:   This pair is also in a buy mode.  Although  it has a difficulty to break the 1.0510 resistance  still has the p[potential to clime to 1.07 as long as it doesn’t break 1.0320