Κυριακή 13 Ιουλίου 2014

NEW TRADE IDEA - LONG USDCAD TARGETING 1.12 AND S/L 1.0590


UPDATE : AS OF 14/07/2013 I AM LONG
 0,2 LOTS USDCAD AT 1,0740 SL 1,0590/ TP  1,12
 0,1 LOT USDCAD AT 1,0710 SL 1,0590 /  TP 1,12



It seems that the correction in USDCAD has been completed and the pair is going to rise again.

I will  go  long  at market opening  on Monday  0.2 lot and place a buy order for  0.1 lot at  1.0710
sl  1.0590 and t/p for all 1.12


END OF MONTH - JUNE (-460 PIPS)


Κυριακή 1 Ιουνίου 2014

END OF MONTH PL(+330) - CLOSING ALL OPENING AND STRATEGIC POSITIONS AND REEVALUATING STRATEGIES

On may  i  did only  one  trade (short  EURNZD  +330 PIPS) .

I have decided in the opening  of  Monday session to close all  my opening positions  (eurchf and  gbpusd ) and reevaluate strategies. I will  focus on eur  weaking in the coming months 

EURNZD SHORT HIT TARGET (+ 330 PIPS PROFIT)

TRADERS AND MEDITATION - AN INTERESTING ARTICLE FROM BLOOMBERG

 When stock and bond markets took a dive in late January, 
hedge-fund manager David Ford kept his cool.
     Ford watched emerging markets melt down and read warnings
that the U.S. economy could crater too. As prices dropped, he
overcame the impulse to flee with the rest of the herd and,
instead, bought more corporate bonds, Bloomberg Pursuits will
report in its Summer 2014 issue.
     After two decades as a trader, Ford credits his serenity to
experience -- and to the 20 minutes he spends in his pajamas
each morning repeating a meaningless mantra bestowed on him by a
teacher of Transcendental Meditation two years ago.
     “I react to volatile markets much more calmly now,” Ford,
48, says. “I have more patience.”
     He also has more money. Latigo Partners LP, his event-
driven credit fund, climbed 24 percent last year. He almost beat
the surging stock market with a bond fund. Ford is part of a
growing number of Wall Street traders, including A-list hedge-
fund managers Ray Dalio, Paul Tudor Jones and Michael Novogratz,
who are fine-tuning their brains -- and upping their games --
with meditation. Billionaire investor Daniel Loeb, who once
likened a chief executive officer to a drug addict during one of
his frequent public rants, in February praised meditation while
sharing a stage with the Dalai Lama in Washington, D.C.
     The idea that Type-A traders are seeking profit with the
same tool that Buddhist monks use to achieve enlightenment might
seem like sacrilege. Yet most people misunderstand meditation,
says Jay Michaelson, author of “Evolving Dharma: Meditation,
Buddhism, and the Next Generation of Enlightenment.”

                        Samurai Practice

     “Meditation used to have this reputation as a hippie thing
for people who speak in a particularly soft tone of voice,”
Michaelson says. Not so. “Samurai practiced meditation to
become more effective killers,” he says. So too did kamikaze
pilots. “It’s value neutral,” Michaelson says.
     Workers at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are folding into the
lotus position in droves, says Elizabeth Sudler, an instructor
the firm retains. Classes where students breathe and monitor
their wandering minds have waiting lists several hundred long,
Goldman spokesman David Wells says. One trader there gets a
twinge in his gut when he senses a move in the markets, Sudler
says. Meditating gives him an edge, he told her, by tuning into
that sensation more reliably. Others report downshifting more
easily after work and sleeping better at night.
     “Goldman employees are under a lot of pressure to
produce,” Sudler says. “No one wants to be left behind.”

                       Anxiety, Psoriasis

     Meditation is going mainstream in part because science is
substantiating what heretofore had been taken on faith. Up until
1983, only three peer-reviewed studies on meditation had ever
been published, Michaelson says. By last year, there were more
than 1,300 studies showing an almost absurd number of benefits,
from alleviating anxiety, depression and insomnia to reducing
heart disease and speeding recovery from psoriasis.
     A 2005 study published by Harvard Medical School
neuroscientist Sara Lazar showed that meditating enhances the
prefrontal cortex, likely creating more connections between
neurons and enlarging blood vessels. Among other functions, the
prefrontal cortex processes sensory information, handles
rational decisions and regulates the amygdala, the structure
that feeds our fight-or-flight instinct. A tame amygdala may be
why David Ford bought bonds amid the panic -- a prescient move
as markets rebounded.

                         ‘Brain Hacking’

     Michaelson calls meditation “brain hacking,” because it
exploits the elastic nature of our gray matter, altering its
makeup, as Lazar and other scientists have proved. As such, it
may be the ultimate disruptive technology, he says. That kind of
talk gets the attention of traders, says Jeff Walker, former
head of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s private-equity unit and a
longtime meditator.
     “These guys are saying, ‘There’s an edge here that I
need,’” Walker says.
     Humans have been meditating in some form for millennia.
Hindu texts from 1500 BC describe the practice, which hit the
big time when a Hindu prince named Siddhartha Gautama became
disenchanted with the empty opulence of the day and took up
residence beneath a fig tree to contemplate the causes of human
suffering. (Hint: Desire is a key culprit.) Through the
teachings of Siddhartha -- who sat down a prince and, after 49
days, arose the Buddha -- mindful meditation radiated out into
the world.

                       Inhaling, Exhaling

     There are many forms of meditation. Vipassana, for example,
starts with concentrating on one thing, such as the breath. If a
dog barks, you might register it before quickly refocusing on
inhaling and exhaling. Mental intrusions are treated the same
way: Thoughts such as “book NetJets” or “offload bitcoins”
quickly pass like leaves floating on a stream.
     Jon Kabat-Zinn, founding executive director of the Center
for Mindfulness in Medicine, Health Care and Society at the
University of Massachusetts Medical School, defines mindfulness
as “paying attention in a particular way, on purpose, in the
present moment and nonjudgmentally.” The aim is to become more
aware of the present and avoid getting hijacked by the past or
the future. Central to Buddhism are the unsettling notions that
everything we know is impermanent and that all we have is the
here and now.
     Transcendental Meditation uses a mantra -- the repetition
of a single sound -- to settle the mind into its least-excited
state. The TM folks, through the years, have consistently
asserted their superiority over other disciplines.

                        Wellness Benefits

     The website of the nonprofit Maharishi Foundation USA, for
example, has variously claimed that “only TM has been found in
hundreds of studies to produce immediate and long-term wellness
benefits of mind and body” and that “no other program for
personal development has received this level of attention and
respect from the scientific community.”
     Transcendental Meditation was developed by Maharishi Mahesh
Yogi (née Mahesh Prasad Varma). Born near Jabalpur, India,
around 1918, the Maharishi, or Great Seer, started teaching his
method in 1955 and became a guru to the Beatles, who famously
traveled to Rishikesh, India, in 1968 to study with him.
     Despite Transcendental Meditation’s claims of superiority,
John Denninger, director of research at the Benson-Henry
Institute for Mind Body Medicine at Massachusetts General
Hospital in Boston, isn’t so sure.
     “I’m not convinced that any difference in outcome is big
enough to say you need to do one type of meditation over
another,” Denninger says. “Getting people to do it in the
first place is what matters.”

                        Perceptive Monks

     Some of the most-striking research has come from the
University of California at Davis. Clifford Saron, a
neuroscientist there who speaks with the slow, gentle tone of a
holy man, went to the foothills of the Himalayas in the 1990s to
study Buddhist monks. Their serene focus inspired him to
organize the Shamatha Project. With his friend and former monk
B. Alan Wallace, Saron selected 60 people and tested their
attention and cognition. Thirty of them then attended a
meditation retreat in Colorado. (The other 30 went later.)
     After three months, Saron re-examined the initial group and
discovered any number of striking changes. For one, the
meditators were literally more perceptive: They could discern
smaller differences between long and short lines flashed on a
screen.
     “How much does an infant learn when it is alert and
relaxed?” Saron asks rhetorically. “That works for us, as
well.”

                         Lower Cortisol

     Some of Saron’s subjects also exhibited lowered levels of
cortisol, the hormone produced by the adrenal gland to help us
deal with stressful situations, such as getting chased by a
water buffalo -- or watching a stock holding get crushed after
an unfavorable earnings report. (Cortisol is also associated
with increased belly fat and diminished cognitive performance;
in other words, it makes us fat and stupid.)
     Perhaps most surprising: Levels of telomerase, an enzyme
that protects genetic material during cell division and delays
cell death, were higher in the retreat group. By boosting
telomerase, meditation could possibly extend life.
     Skeptics, including some who’ve logged countless hours of
silent sitting, say that the promise of meditation sometimes
exceeds what’s practical. Tony Schwartz, author of “Be
Excellent at Anything: The Four Keys to Transforming the Way We
Work and Live,” says he’s meditated for hundreds of hours,
starting 25 years ago.

                         Lotus Position

     “But the more time I spent meditating, the less value I
derived from it,” he wrote in a January column in the New York
Times. Nor has he seen evidence that the practice makes people
happier or leads to better behavior. “Don’t expect more than it
can deliver,” he wrote.
     Meditation’s arrival on Wall Street closes a circle of
sorts. Whereas Siddhartha Gautama took to the lotus position out
of frustration with his riches, traders are hitting the mat to
obtain them. Dalio, for example, runs the largest hedge-fund
firm in the world and is worth $14 billion, according to the
Bloomberg Billionaires Index. He’s also the most vocal proponent
of meditation in finance and claims the practice has been the
single biggest factor in his success.
     Dalio, 64, discovered Transcendental Meditation through the
Beatles. He’s been at it for 42 years, sitting for 20 minutes,
twice on most days, he says. He’s so convinced of its benefits
that he pays half the cost of Transcendental Meditation
instruction for the employees at his Westport, Connecticut–based
Bridgewater Associates LP.

                         ‘Like a Ninja’

     A competitive edge, not enlightenment, seems to be driving
Dalio. “I feel like a ninja in a fight,” Dalio said of his
professional equanimity, during a February panel discussion in
New York on the benefits of meditation. “When it comes at you,
it seems like slow motion.”
     Tudor Jones is another hedge-fund billionaire on a quest
for inner peace and profit. A PBS documentary from 1987 shows
him trading in the most agitated, un-Buddhalike manner
imaginable. Twenty-five years later, he and his wife, Sonia, an
Ashtanga yoga enthusiast, gave $12 million to create the
Contemplative Sciences Center at the University of Virginia in
Charlottesville, Jones’s alma mater.
     David Mick teaches an undergraduate business school course
there called “Cultivating Wisdom and Well-Being for Personal
and Professional Growth.” He recommends meditation and takes
each semester’s students on a field trip to Yogaville, a nearby
ashram. “You can’t be a wiser person if you can’t discipline
your mind,” says Mick, who meditates every morning.

                         ‘Powerful Drug’

     Willoughby Britton, a neuroscientist at Brown University,
warns that neophytes should proceed with caution. Spending hours
contemplating impermanence can foster anxiety and sadness. She
has seen people experience psychotic episodes on meditation
retreats, convincing themselves, for example, that the teacher
is evil and must be killed. “This is a powerful drug; it’s not
a hot bath,” Britton says, adding that the risks are worth the
rewards.
     Unlike some other Western practitioners, Joan Halifax, a
roshi, or revered teacher, at the Upaya Zen Center in Santa Fe,
New Mexico, says she’s concerned the lords of finance are using
meditation for unjust ends, ignoring the moral principles
embodied in Buddhism.
     “You can train people with meditation to be
sharpshooters,” she says. “Are they trying to get smarter so
they can exploit more people? Or are they interested in creating
a more just financial system?”
     Dalio, for one, has agreed to give most of his fortune to
charity under the Giving Pledge program started by Warren
Buffett and Bill Gates, a move that would probably have
impressed the Buddha himself, who lived by daana, or a spirit of
generosity.
     Before you give that fortune away, though, you have to earn
it. Some of the brightest minds in finance are betting that
meditation will help them do just that.


THE WRITERS OF THIS ARTICLE WERE:

Katherine Burton in New York  
Anthony Effinger in Portland  

Τρίτη 27 Μαΐου 2014

THEY SAVED THE EURO BUT NOT THE PEOPLE

http://www.vox.com/2014/5/9/5675398/they-saved-the-eurozone-they-just-forgot-to-save-the-people

Remember the eurozone crisis? You don't hear much about it anymore, which could easily lead you to the conclusion that the problems have been solved. And to an extent they have been. Nobody thinks the eurozone is going to collapse anymore, and nobody thinks there will be a worldwide banking panic.
The only problem is vast swathes of the continent remain an economic disaster area. They saved the eurozone, but not the economies that it comprises or the people who live there.
Eurozone
The highest unemployment state in the USA is Rhode Island at 8.7 percent
The eurozone has ten countries — including big ones like France, Italy, and Spain — that are doing worse than Rhode Island. Greece has 11 million people — making it more than 10 times the size of Rhode Island — and an unemployment rate of almost 27 percent. Meanwhile, Finland is considered one of the healthy eurozone economies but only Nevada and Rhode Island have unemployment rates higher than Finland's, and they're close.

Saving banks and politicians

So what happened? Well, recall the problem. A bunch of countries that had previously been considered substantially less creditworthy than Germany joined the euro, and immediately saw a huge reduction in their borrowing costs. That led to irresponsible budgeting in Italy, a lot of private borrowing in Spain and Ireland, and a bit of both in Greece. Then after the global financial crisis hit, all these countries wound up in recession.
The bad economic climate started to push budget deficits up. And it became clear that contrary to the hopes of international investors, the German government had no interest in guaranteeing southern Europe's debts. The combination of rising deficits and reduced confidence led investors to demand higher interest rates to lend money to these governments. The higher interest rates made the deficits worse. A downward spiral was under way.
Whatever_it_takes
In stepped Mario Draghi, chief of the European Central Bank, with a speech and a plan. The plan was called Outright Monetary Transactions and the speech said Draghi would do "whatever it takes" to prevent a eurozone government from being forced into default or out of the eurozone.
What it meant in practice was that as long as a national government was committed to a fiscal austerity plan — tax hikes plus spending cuts — the ECB would commit to potentially unlimited levels of bond-buying in order to prevent its interest rates from spiking. In one of those magical moments of monetary policy, the existence of the commitment meant Draghi never really had to test it. Speculators stopped betting on default and collapse, governments wrote austerity budgets, and interest rates steadily declined.
The result was that banks that owned eurozone government debt were saved, and so were institutions around the world that relied on the European banking system not collapsing. All in all, a job well done. Meanwhile, politicians got to take credit for keeping their countries in the Eurozone and for falling interest rates while pushing the blame for unpopular austerity policies on Draghi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Nicely done.

People left behind

The only problem is that the downward spiral didn't start with high interest rates, it started with bad economic conditions. When people don't have jobs, they can't pay taxes and that puts pressure on government budgets. But the budgetary consequences of sky-high unemployment are only scratching the surface — the real problem with sky-high unemployment is the widespread human misery.
So what caused the economic problems? Conservatives will point to high taxes, a generous welfare state, strict regulations, and other structural policies they don't like as the source of Europe's woes. And it's true that Europe has long had a higher unemployment rate than the United States perhaps for these reasons (though America's unemployment edge is partially offset by having far more people in prison, where they don't count as unemployed) but the gap shifts over time:
Eurozone

Europe didn't suddenly turn socialistic over the past four years. If anything, the opposite. Since the onset of the crisis, Europe has been doing market reforms and the United States has been expanding its welfare state. The gap is growing because as America recovers from the economic crisis at a frustratingly slow pace, Europe is recovering even more slowly.

The failure of austerity and reform

Eurozone officials have preached a gospel of budget austerity and "structural reform" to ailing economies as the cure for the crisis. By making central bank assistance contingent on willingness to adopt a plan that the European Central Bank approves of, the ECB has in part managed to turn this into a self-fulfilling prophesy. Everything has gotten better since governments agreed to the ECB plan, and a government that tried to abandon austerity would likely find itself abandoned by the ECB and thus worse off than ever.
The success of these programs, oft-claimed by European officials, has largely come by setting the bar low. What is true is that among the hardest-hit countries, the ones who've most enthusiastically embraced the austerity and reform agenda have done the best:
Crisis_bars
At the same time, even plucky Ireland has an extraordinarily high unemployment rate. It is true that the scale of the construction bubble and subsequent bust in Ireland made a considerable amount of economic pain inevitable, but Iceland outside the eurozone had an even bigger bust and unemployment is now down to below six percent.
A country doesn't manage to achieve Greek or Spanish levels of economic misery without some complicated political and economic problems. But the striking thing about the eurozone is how poorly the countries that are "doing everything right" are nonetheless doing. Underneath the particular pathologies of the crisis areas is an overarching pathology — the single currency.

The sudden stop

The eurozone's troubled economies suffered from a version of what's known in international economics as a sudden stop. The way it works is that first global investors get really excited about a particular country for some reason, and start pumping money into it. Typically this happens without a lot of detailed local knowledge, so rather than financing specific projects they lend to local banks who presumably do have the knowledge about what to finance. But as the local banks get pumped-up with more and more foreign money, they start getting sloppy. For a while, it doesn't matter. So much money is rushing in to finance projects that old investments tend to pay off regardless of the merit.
Road_runner_wallpaper
But then comes a Wile E. Coyote moment when everyone realizes that there's nothing but sheer enthusiasm backing all these flows. Suddenly foreigners don't want to invest anymore, and to the extent possible want to get their money back. Now the whole investment boom runs in reverse.
If this happens to your country, something bad is bound to happen.
The normal bad consequence — the one that's happened to Iceland — is that the value of your currency plummets. Suddenly vacations, imported cars, and even basic agricultural commodities get very expensive. Almost everybody needs to cut back their spending and live a more humble lifestyle. Fewer consumer goods, fewer trips, more rice and beans for dinner. But the falling currency does have some upsides. Suddenly it's cheap for foreigners to visit your country, and cheap for them to buy your export goods. So people who lost jobs in the collapse can gain new jobs in the sectors that benefit from a currency collapse. It's not pleasant, but it doesn't last forever.

A cross of euros

The problem for Ireland, Spain, and Italy is that they don't have currencies to collapse. They use the same currency, the euro, as Austria and Germany and the Netherlands and other countries that never had the inflows of hot money and thus aren't suffering from the negative consequences of a sudden stop.
If you're a Spanish person who hasn't lost his job — maybe you're a surgeon or you have a safe gig in the Finance Ministry — this is great news. The value of your euro-denominated salary doesn't collapse, so you can still afford that BMW or trip to London. But the fact that you're vacationing in England rather than locally is bad for your fellow Spaniards, and especially bad for Spanish people who lost their jobs when the crisis struck. And because Spain hasn't had a currency collapse, it doesn't suddenly become a discount vacation spot for Germans and Americans and demand for Spanish wines and ham doesn't surge.
The only way to regain competitiveness is for the sheer weight of unemployment to start dragging nominal wages downward across the economy. In an enthusiastic, well-behaved country like Latvia or Ireland this is a grinding medium-speed process. In a reluctant country like Spain or Greece it's agonizingly slow. Either way, it's much more painful than a currency depreciation because only some prices adjust — people with old debts or long-term contract obligations get totally screwed.
These problems of excessively valuable money used to occur globally during the gold standard era whenever there was a slowdown in global gold mining. In a famous 1896 speech, presidential candidate William Jennings Bryan alleged that American farmers and workers were being crucified on a cross of gold — made to endure avoidable suffering for the sake of the principle that gold was the only true judge of wealth. Today, unemployed Irish, Greek, Spanish, Italian, and Portuguese people are being crucified on a cross of euros. The single currency project has political motives that go beyond macroeconomic management, and keeping the project together requires someone's interest to be sacrificed.
Draghi's "everything it takes" is a commitment to save the eurozone as a political project, not to save the eurozone's citizens from mass unemployment.

Two more structural problems

The problems with the eurozone aren't simply the single currency. An American state like Nevada has the same inability to devalue its currency as you see in Ireland. Nonetheless, even the best-performing European crisis country is doing far worse than the worst-performing American states.
To understand why that is, you need to look for non-monetary factors — language and the welfare state.
Here in the United States it is relatively easy for an unemployed person in Rhode Island to try to move to a more prosperous area in search of a job. It's not easy by any means. But it's relatively easy. They'll speak English and watch the same TV shows wherever you go. It's much harder in both practical and psychological terms for a Portuguese person to go find a job in Munich. The eurozone has one currency, but a whole bunch of languages and national traditions.
The other issue is the welfare state. Both the USA and European countries redistribute income from those who have a lot to those who have a little. In the USA, this operates across states. So when a particular place suffers a particularly acute jobs crisis, it ends up with a lot of poor people and extra money flows in. This helps the local economy. If unemployed Rhode Islanders couldn't get food stamps, for example, local grocery stores would probably need to lay workers off and exacerbate the problem. In Europe, the welfare state redistributes money from rich Austrians to poor Austrians, but not from rich Austrians to poor Italians. So this kind of automatic stabilization doesn't take place.

On top of all that, a mistake

Something that's often missed in assessing Europe's economic mess is that problems are actually getting worse in countries that weren't originally hit by the sovereign debt crisis. Take a look at joblessness in France and the Netherlands, two countries that were never involved in the eurozone crisis' acute phase:
Unemployment
Because rich Americans tend to disapprove of France and to especially disapprove of Socialist Party President François Hollande's policies, you often hear France's woes blamed on Hollande's initiatives. But the Netherlands has followed the exact same pattern. Rising unemployment as the recession hit, then a slow recovery, then backsliding.
The issue is that over and above the inherent difficulty of a whole bunch of countries sharing the same currency, the European Central Bank has implemented monetary policies that are too tight for Europe as a whole. The ECB is supposed to be targeting an inflation rate of 2 percent, but actual inflation has plunged far below this target:
Inflation
For the crisis countries to recover without independent currencies, local nominal prices need to fall so that those countries can improve their competitiveness. But the math is a bit tricky. While the eurozone as a whole averages 2 percent inflation, inflation has to be higher than 2 percent somewhere else for it to all work. That would be uncomfortable for German citizens and politicians, and the ECB is widely thought to cater to German preferences (for example it is located in Frankfurt, Germany rather than in Brussels with the other major European Union institutions).
But this explanation only gets us so far. German inflation has been above average recently, but still below the ECB's 2 percent target.
High unemployment and below-target inflation aren't unique to Europe by any means. The same pattern exists in the United States due to somewhat hazy concerns about financial stability. But the Federal Reserve has been much more aggressive than the ECB in attempting unconventional monetary policiesand it's no coincidence that Europe's unemployment rate is higher and inflation rate is lower as a consequence.

How does this end?

European policymakers have largely lost interest in what their critics on this side of the Atlantic have to say, primarily because widespread predictions that the eurozone would break up absent more dramatic integration measures have been debunked. But the reason American economists tended to underrate the viability of the European approach is not that they misread the economics — they misread the politics.
Both the European Union in general and the eurozone in particular are foreign policy projects that happen to have large economic implications. For Finland or Latvia, membership in the eurozone is an implicit guarantee that (unlike Ukraine) Europe will have their backs in a showdown with Russia. For Spain and Portugal it's a symbol of their successful transition to democracy and developed country status in the 1980s. For Greece it's something to hold over Turkey. For Ireland it's a sign of independence from the United Kingdom. In the face of these political imperatives leaders throughout Europe have decided that economic pain is bearable.
Nevertheless, the economic aspects of the situation look untenable. Economic forecasters project that crisis-stricken countries will grow in 2014 and 2015, which some take as a sign of a return to normalcy.
But earlier this month the European investment bank Natixis observed that this is wrong. On the current course, Italy should regain its 2007 level of unemployment sometime around 2020. Portugal will have to wait until 2036 and Spain until 2029.
The politics of this look untenable. And yet no major political party in any country favors withdrawal from the eurozone. In turn, one consequence of this has been a rising tide of support for a range of unorthodox political parties ranging from Greek neo-Nazis to Catalan separatists to a party led by an Italian comedianwho refuses to participate in any coalition government.
But thus far in countries where upstart parties that deviate from the consensus have won support, mainstream parties have proven willing to set aside their differences with traditional rivals and form grand coalitions in defense of the status quo. For all the problems, the consensus around the European project has proven remarkably durable. Europe's leaders — starting with Draghi and Merkel but extending to an extreme wide range of policy elites in a range of countries — have done the seemingly undoable. They saved the single currency without fixing any of the problems that seemed to make it unworkable.

Δευτέρα 12 Μαΐου 2014

JIM O NEIL: SELL IN MAY . SHORT THE EURO , WATCH APPLE .

The former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management retired in April last year, but hasn’t given up actively investing. His latest bet was on a mobile-payment company in Nigeria, but he’s also up for shorting the euro and playing the Chinese consumer. Or how about taking a closer look at previously struggling southern European countries, such as Spain and Greece?
Click to Play

Jim O’Neill: Short the euro, go for China, Nigeria

China is still the champ, and that means buying consumer-related stocks, while Nigerian tech companies could be the next big thing, said economist Jim O’Neill. He also explains why he is keen on investing in emerging markets, but is keeping his distance from Russia for now.
“I’m very interested in the interplay between technology and Africa. And that’s why I made this investment in Nigeria. That’s probably the last sizeable investment I’ve made,” O’Neill said in an interview on Thursday. “I’ve spend more time in Nigeria in the past 12 months than in any other country in the world outside of Europe. Maybe I’m a bit insane.”
O’Neill coined the term “BRIC” in 2001 as shorthand for the four big nations — Brazil, Russia, India and China — poised to challenge the West’s economic dominance. In 2013, he followed up with “MINT” — Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey — to describe the next group with interesting demographics and investment potential.
At age 57, he now chairs the U.K. Cities Growth Commission and is a visiting research fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. While the only thing keeping O’Neill awake at night is Manchester United — his favorite soccer team — he still follows investing trends. Read on for more.
MarketWatch: Emerging markets got off to a rough start in the beginning of the year, but many actually ended up outperforming the U.S. and Europe in the first quarter. Do you think this trend will continue?
O’Neill: I have no idea, but my suspicion is yes. All that January told me, was that the mood had become almost one of frenzy as to how bad emerging markets were going to be. Which is usually a reverse indicator. And so far, that looks like that’s been the case again.
Secondly, the valuations in EM are so attractive relative to the structural story and relative to the developed world. So, if you believe in the structural EM theme, you should be praying for moments when the mass psychology of markets doesn’t want to invest in it. Because all that it tells you, is that all the idiots are getting out.
MarketWatch: Where are some of the best investment opportunities right now?
O’Neill: I believe in investing in favor of China and the Chinese consumer. One of my big things is to be long the new China and short the old China.
MarketWatch: And how do you define the new China?
O’Neill: It’s related to the consumer. In some ways, the Shenzhen index (SHE:CN:399106) is more representative of the new China than the Shanghai (SHA:CN:SHCOMP) , so one way to play this is to be long Shenzhen and short Shanghai.
Another way is through global consumer stocks. Look at Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) latest results — again the main reason why they blew the market away was simply because of their sales to China (...) The more I think about it, Apple is a Chinese stock, not a U.S. stock. It’s a stock that’s got U.S. technology, but basically its future depends on China.
BMW (FRA:DE:BMW)  is another company with strong sales to China.
MarketWatch: So you don’t see a hard landing there?
O’Neill: I think it’s ridiculous. China is clearly slowing, but most of the reason it’s slowing is because the policy makers deliberately want it to slow and get China readjusted. So, as I’ve said for the past two years, China is never going to land anytime soon.
It’s not soft versus hard landing — it’s kind of a crazy idea. China is always going to keep traveling. And I think compared with the other BRICs, China is doing a great job. I worry about Brazil and Russia a bit, and this ongoing election in India is a really important thing.

Russian caution

MarketWatch: As for Russia: The MICEX index  is down more than 10% year-to-date. Do you think this is a good time to buy?
O’Neill: Russia appears cheap. So one has to keep thinking all the while: Is Russia going to continue to be as bad as it is? I think the answer to that is that it’s very hard to know.
One part of my brain thinks [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has gone a bit mad, but another part of my brain thinks of Putin as being actually quite sophisticated, particularly in terms of his tactics with the rest of the world. And I can’t imagine that things would carry on deteriorating the way that they are.
But let me put it in a bit more specific way: About a year ago, I bought a two-year call option on Russia, personally, on the Russian index, because I thought it was cheap. I was losing quite a bit of money, even before this mess. But as soon as this mess started, I thought: I’m out.
MarketWatch: So would you buy into it now?
O’Neill: No. Despite the valuation, I’d want to see some evidence that something’s changing (...) They need something to get their economy going. I don’t dismiss the possibility — in the crazy way Russia and Putin work — that one of the reasons he’s doing this is to distract from the fact the economy is really struggling.

Short the euro

MarketWatch: If you don’t want to invest in Russia right now, is there another place you think is overlooked, but potentially really exciting?
1.40
1.35
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A
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The euro trades close to the $1.40 level
O’Neill: I think the low volatility we see in the currency markets is interesting, and I think it’s unlikely to stay. I personally think shorting the euro (ICAP:EURUSD) is finally worth doing, as we are close to $1.40. I’ve done that recently myself.
Trying to short the New Zealand dollar (ICAP:NZDUSD)  is also interesting, to me, because the government and the politicians are exploring changing the central bank’s inflation-targeting mandates. And it’s a place I’ve followed — they were the first country to ever introduce inflation targeting, so I’ve followed it since the early ’90s, so it’s something I’m pretty close mentally to. And I think that’s important. New Zealand suffers from a very overvalued currency.
MarketWatch: Would you say the euro is overvalued as well, or is it just low inflation that’s the problem in the euro zone?
O’Neill: Both. The euro is definitely overvalued, and of course they have far too low inflation. And the pressure is building to do something of significance.
[European Central Bank President Mario] Draghi would love to do something, but he’s constrained by these lunatics in Frankfurt. You know the Germans won’t accept that German inflation should go above 2%. But as we creep through time, the pressure is going to build, and I noticed the new French prime minister [recently] said the euro should be devalued. If you go back as long as I do, usually when the French start making big noises about currencies, something happens.
MarketWatch: What’s the best tool for ECB easing?
O’Neill: The whole idea of buying corporate bonds would be the best thing for them to do. I don’t know whether that’s what they’d do at first.
MarketWatch : In terms of the euro exchange rate, how low do you think it has to go?
O’Neill: Given Europe’s challenge, Spain’s challenges, the challenges of the rest of the periphery — the euro shouldn’t really be above $1.20. That would be a sensible level.
Away from the currencies, in equities: I have believed all year — and I continue to believe — the best places to invest are peripheral Europe. So Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece. They are outperforming, and I expect that to continue, because they are showing some recovery. If the euro reverses, it’ll help them even more.

Downbeat on U.S. stocks

MarketWatch: U.S. stocks have been quite strong and are close to record highs. Do you think we’re due a correction?
O’Neill: One of the things I’ve learned from my intense days in [London’s financial district] the City was that, when everyone was searching for upside, I started to believe in this so-called five-day rule. So if the accumulative move on the S&P (SNC:SPX) the first five days of January is up, there’s 85% probability of a rally for the year. If it’s down, it’s 50-50. Guess what happened the first five days this year? It was down. So in my opinion, it adds to my view that I don’t know what’s going to happen with the U.S. market, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it goes down.
I’m slightly in the negative camp, because I also believe in this “sell in May and go away” thing. If you look at the past 50 years, it kind of works. For whatever crazy reason. There’s no logical reason, but it works.
MarketWatch: If you had money to invest now, would you put any of it in the U.S. stock market?
O’Neill: Not really. No.
MarketWatch: There’s been a lot of merger activity recently. What do you think are the characteristics of the next big M&As?

AstraZeneca says 'No thanks' to Pfizer

AstraZeneca rejects an improved takeover offer from Pfizer worth more than $106 billion, saying the proposal substantially undervalues the company.. Photo: Getty
O’Neill: What is interesting is that in both Europe and the U.S., many companies have an enormous amount of cash. To me, the broader thing from your question is: We may be at the first point where the stock market is going to start rewarding companies for investing, as opposed to keeping cash. 
One of the post-’08 things has been “cash is king” for corporations. Maybe that’s about to change. And if that’s true, it could happen in a number of industries. Certainly in tech, but also, as we’ve seen, in pharmas and global cyclicals.
MarketWatch: Do you see any big European tech companies as a takeover target?
O’Neill: A classic one is looking at Scandinavia. You look at each of Nokia (NYSE:NOK)(HEL:FI:NOK1V)  and Ericsson (STO:SE:ERICB) , and they are sort of not what they were. So would it be surprising if you woke up tomorrow and saw that somebody was going to buy Ericsson?
It wouldn’t surprise me if Ericsson maybe tried to buy BlackBerry. Don’t know anything about that, but I wouldn’t be surprised.
MarketWatch: A few years ago all headlines were about the euro-zone crisis, and now it’s all M&As.
O’Neill: It could be the beginning of a big change.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jim-oneill-short-the-euro-watch-apple-and-more-tips-2014-05-06/print?guid=667EAE16-D203-11E3-8FB0-00212803FAD6