12/12/2012 TRADE CLOSED !!!After 3 months my trade was finally closed . It was a smooth trade and
very well behaved allthough it took more time that i was anticipating.
Although that many believed that the main driver for yen weakening
would be BOJ finally it was political .... Election were announced for
16 December and Noda 's party lost . The new leader is a bold supparter
of a further drastic QE
09/12/2012 UPDATE: I beleive that is making a bullish flag which is indicating the continuation of the trend . I remain with my s/l at 81.50 and expect my t/p to be hit at the begining of this week.
01/12/2012 UPDATE:
The pair is very close to my target . I decided to raise my s/l at 81.50!I believe that it should reach its target this week
18/11/2012 UPDATE:
On 14/11/2012 - PM Noda has proposed election if the opposition party agrees to vote for the reforms . This gave a boost to the pair which startedrising and made a daily move of allmost 100pips!!! It appears that a wave 3 starts which will shoot the currency above 83!None the less there is the 80.50 resistance still looming
15/11/2012 - Finally the pair has taken the 80.50 resistance clearing the way for 83 level . Although it has been driven by mainly local events and political comments referering to prospective elections it should be
noted that there is risk aversion mode on the markets after Israel kills Hamas military leader.
Overall,
even though technically the rise has been excpected by me i still cant
understand the fundamentals behind it(why now?) and i am troubled as to
how far more the pair could climb in the near future .Of course, for the
long term i have been very bear for this pair and it has been also
one of my two strategic trades that i have initiated in the beginning of
the year (in addition to the trade i ahave also place a month a go
which is more shorterm)
11/11/2012 UPDATE:
However , after the announcement the pair fall .Nonetheless, the fact
that is still holding is also the rise in US treasury yields. This makes
me to come to the conclusion that the main factor which moves this pair
is US bond yileds and this should be taken under great account.
04/11/2012 UPDATE:
Since the beginning of October USDJPY has been rising slowly but steady . Many believed that this was due to an increase in the amount of QE by the Bank of Japan. However, when BOJ announce the amount which did not exceed the amount which was expected the pair fall sharply almost breaking the bull trend. This was exactly what happened in Septemeber with all the bulls get trapped and the currency making new short term low and cancelling the bullish bias . However this time the fall was contained and from the following day the pair has been on the rise again .This is a very good signal for my trade since it shows that the bulls are still in control and the drive of the rise this time is something much stronger than pure speculation on the BOJ monetary easing. Maybe it has something to do with the rise in the yields in the american treasuries. This pair has a strong correlation with the US treasury yiled but i always thought that monetary easing would have a much more devastating effect on the currency . It appears that this is not the case and its a good subject for investigation
16/10/2012 UPDATE: My order has been activated . I raise my s/l to 77.50
I believe that the pair is getting ready for a breakout. I will enter a buy stop at 78.95 with s/l 77.00 and t/p 83 valid is good till cancel
09/12/2012 UPDATE: I beleive that is making a bullish flag which is indicating the continuation of the trend . I remain with my s/l at 81.50 and expect my t/p to be hit at the begining of this week.
01/12/2012 UPDATE:
The pair is very close to my target . I decided to raise my s/l at 81.50!I believe that it should reach its target this week
18/11/2012 UPDATE:
Last week the pair tried to shook
all the long players by giving them a fast down move. However as i have
said in my last update the pair close the week indicating that the
bull trend is not over . Indeed this was confirmed this week during
which the pair has exploded and broke the 80.50 resistance due to main
political developments .Next stop now 81.10 and then 84!! Below are my
thoughts as events were unfolded last week
On 14/11/2012 - PM Noda has proposed election if the opposition party agrees to vote for the reforms . This gave a boost to the pair which startedrising and made a daily move of allmost 100pips!!! It appears that a wave 3 starts which will shoot the currency above 83!None the less there is the 80.50 resistance still looming
15/11/2012 - Finally the pair has taken the 80.50 resistance clearing the way for 83 level . Although it has been driven by mainly local events and political comments referering to prospective elections it should be
noted that there is risk aversion mode on the markets after Israel kills Hamas military leader.
So
here we are at the end of this week and the pair has closed at 81.29.
Nonetheless it hasnt stopped to makes me wondering why this move has
been initiated now? Many say that the fact that Japan is going to
elections and the party which will probable win is a strong believer of
more quantitative easing is one reason. Others say that is the
political instability that makes people to sell the currency . If that
is the case then why is the Nikkei rising so strong?In the other hand
we have important geopolitical events in the middle east with Israel
attacking hamas and killing their leader which may unfold to a big war
in the area which is something that would be very bad for the global
stockmarkets. It is known so far that risk on mentality in the markets
is positively corelated with the USDJPY pair (when markets rise so does
the pair).
11/11/2012 UPDATE:
The USDJPY has a bad week due to risk aversion and the fall in
equities.My trade is still active and even though the pair had a fall
all the uptrend boundaries are intact and also the JPY crosses seems to
hold. At the end of October we had the BOJ announcing the QE measures
for supporting the economy. Many tried to speculate on the currency,
days before that the QE announcement would be much higher than excpected
and this probable had serious effect on the early rise of the pair.
04/11/2012 UPDATE:
Since the beginning of October USDJPY has been rising slowly but steady . Many believed that this was due to an increase in the amount of QE by the Bank of Japan. However, when BOJ announce the amount which did not exceed the amount which was expected the pair fall sharply almost breaking the bull trend. This was exactly what happened in Septemeber with all the bulls get trapped and the currency making new short term low and cancelling the bullish bias . However this time the fall was contained and from the following day the pair has been on the rise again .This is a very good signal for my trade since it shows that the bulls are still in control and the drive of the rise this time is something much stronger than pure speculation on the BOJ monetary easing. Maybe it has something to do with the rise in the yields in the american treasuries. This pair has a strong correlation with the US treasury yiled but i always thought that monetary easing would have a much more devastating effect on the currency . It appears that this is not the case and its a good subject for investigation
16/10/2012 UPDATE: My order has been activated . I raise my s/l to 77.50
I believe that the pair is getting ready for a breakout. I will enter a buy stop at 78.95 with s/l 77.00 and t/p 83 valid is good till cancel
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