TRADE IDEA FOR THIS WEEK- LONG AUDUSD @ OPENING(1.0465)

UPDATE 09/12/2012:The pair has not behaved as i was expecting. Although it has taken out the 1.0480 resistance it hasnt gained momentum closing the week at 1.0484.I will raise my s/l at 1.0320 and be vigilant to rethink and maybe  close it if it doesnt climb above 1.05 on Monday close.

UDPATE 29/11/2012:  I have entered  my trade at  1.0465 erly monday morning

The pair gave  a buy signal last Friday

I will enter (market)long at the opening of Monday session (00:01) with a target 1.07 and s/l 1.0290.

I will keep a  tight trailing stop on this trade as i expect the movement to be impulsive. Bear in mind that i have still open my USDJPY trade.

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 26 NOV - 30 NOV

The closing of last week was very event full in the FX world.  Although we had a bank holiday on Thursday and Friday in US market (due to thanks giving), Fridays close gave many trend reversal signals to the main pairs. More specifically we have now a verified uptrend in EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD and nice breakout at Gold as well! Below is my weekly analysis

EURUSD:  The pair gave a buy signal on Friday! It has entered in an uptrend mode in both daily and weekly. Most probable target now is 1.3500

EURJPY:   This pair continues to be in a strong uptrend getting favoured by the rise in euro and the weakening in the yen .As I said last week since the pair managed to break the 104.70 resistance is now targeting 107 and then 110.

EURAUD: The pair gives mixed signals with the bear bias still being the stronger. As I said last week only a break of 1.2420 would change the trend and give a strong buy signal

EURCHF: The pair is in the dark bear zone. Strong down (again after a small break of a couple of months the indicators have turned red again)

USDCHF:  As I have already mentioned this pair is the alter ego of EURUSD. As a result since EURUSD gave a buy signal this gave a sell.

GBPUSD:  This was the pair that favoured the list by the risk on mentality last week. Still in a downtrend but with not any momentum left at the moment. Not a very clear picture

USDJPY:   The star of the last few weeks. The pair is continuing its strong uptrend in full throttle! All indicators are at buy mode. I expect to reach 84 next week and then 92 in the following weeks after

AUDUSD:  Last week the pair did not have a clear picture. However, since the closing of last Friday it has given a strong buy signal. First target 1.0620 and then  1.0800

JIM RICKARDS: A CURRENCY WAR SIMULATION

JOHN TAYLOR ANALYSES FX INDUSTRY AND HOW ITS HAS BEEN TRANSFORMED OVER THE YEARS

Below is an intervew of John Taylor on Opalesque tv . He discusses several issues of FX market

MORE THOUGHTS ON MY OPEN USDJPY TRADE

Last week the pair tried to shook all the long players by giving them a fast down move. However as  i have said in my last update the pair close the week indicating that  the bull trend is not over . Indeed this was confirmed this week during which the pair has exploded and broke the 80.50 resistance due to main political developments .Next stop now  81.10 and then  84!! Below are my thoughts as events were unfolded last week

On 14/11/2012 - PM Noda has proposed  election if the opposition party  agrees to vote for the reforms .  This gave a boost to the pair  which startedrising and made a daily move  of allmost 100pips!!! It appears that a wave 3 starts which will shoot the currency above 83!None the less there is the  80.50 resistance still looming

15/11/2012 -  Finally the pair has taken the 80.50 resistance clearing the way  for 83 level . Although it has been driven by mainly  local events and political comments referering to prospective elections  it should be
noted that there is  risk aversion mode on the markets after Israel  kills Hamas military leader.

So here  we are at the end of this week and the pair has closed  at 81.29. Nonetheless it hasnt stopped to makes me wondering why this move has been initiated now? Many say that the fact that Japan is going to elections and the party which will probable win is a strong believer of more quantitative easing is one reason. Others say that is the political instability that makes people to sell the currency . If that is the case then why  is the Nikkei rising so strong?In the other hand we have  important geopolitical events in the middle east with Israel attacking hamas and killing their leader  which may  unfold to a big war in the area which is something that would be very bad for the global  stockmarkets. It is known so far that risk on mentality in the markets is positively corelated with the USDJPY pair (when markets rise so does the pair).

Overall, even though technically the rise has been excpected by me i still cant understand the fundamentals behind it(why now?) and i am troubled as to how far more the pair could climb in the near future .Of course, for the long term  i have been  very bear  for this pair and it has been also one of my two strategic trades that i have initiated in the beginning of the year (in addition to the trade i ahave also place a month a go which is more shorterm)

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 19 NOV - 25 NOV

The most important events in the economic calendar for the coming week are : 1) The announcement of  rates by the Bank of Japan on Monday , 2) The speach of RBA gov Stevens on Tusday , 3) The speach of Ben Bernanke also on Tusday, 4) German Ifo business climate on Friday. In addition we have a Eurogroup on Tusday where decision for Greece are expected to be made and  ongoing talks for the Fiscall cliff

EURUSD: The weekly is in a buy mode but with not a clear trend  . Daily in the other hand shows a strong downtrend. None the less indicators show that we may have a retracement up to 1.2850-1.29 area in the beginning of the week (events related) before a new strong downtrend resume. 

EURJPY:  Both weekly and daily  indicators shows a strong uptrend . With a a fair value around  101.70 the pair has a lot of upward potential . If it breaks  104.70 resistance then it will climb fast to 107 and then  110 area 

EURAUD: In weekly the pair is bear without though being able to give a sell signal yet . In the daily however the picture is very  different . Most of the indicators point down  and only a break of  1.2420 area would change the momentum dramatically and give a a strong buy signal

EURCHF: Strong down (again after a small break of a couple of months the idicators have turned red again)

USDCHF: Strong up by most of indicators . This pair is behaving exactly opposite of what eurusd does

GBPUSD : This pair is getting ready for a  bit fall propable to 1.51 level. Although it has a strong doward weekly wave momentum, the weekly up trend still remains intact. In the daily however is in a clear downtrend both trend and wave.

USDJPY: This pair is in a strong uptrend which probable will lead it to  84 and then 92 area

AUDUSD: The analysis in this pait give mixed results. It is slightly bear but it is better to wait . If it fades the fall and breaks 1.0460 it would be a strong buy !

UPDATE ON MY USDJPY OPEN TRADE

The USDJPY has a bad week due to risk aversion and the fall in equities.My trade is still active and even though the pair had a fall all the uptrend boundaries are intact and also the JPY crosses seems to hold. At the end of October  we had the BOJ announcing the QE measures for supporting the economy. Many tried to speculate on the currency, days before that the QE announcement would be much higher than excpected and this probable had serious effect on the early rise of the pair.

However , after the announcement the pair fall .Nonetheless, the fact that is still holding is also the rise in US treasury yields. This makes me to come to the conclusion that the main factor which moves this pair is US bond yileds and this should be taken under great account.
 

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 12 NOV - 18 NOV

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 04 NOV - 09 NOV

END OF OCTOBER P/L REPORT [ 0 PIPS] - 1 ACTIVE TRADE STILL WORKING

This month I took only  one trade  (long USDJPY )which is still active.

Below is a graph of how i have done since the beginning of the year. I still have open  my longs in EURCHF and USDJPY.

 Below is my blotter since the beginning of the year

LOT PRICE S/L T/P EXIT PRICE PIPS EURCHF LONG 0,5 1,208 1,199   WORKING   EURJPY LONG 0,1 100,68 99,2 103,2 103,2 252 EURJPY LONG 0,1 100,2 99,2 102,1 102,1 190 EURAUD LONG 0,1 1,237 1,229 1,245 1,229 -80 EURAUD LONG 0,1 1,23 1,212 1,255 1,255 150 USDJPY LONG 0,1 79,54 75,4 90 WORKING   USDCHF LONG 0,1 91,6 90,5 93 93 140 EURAUD LONG 0,1 1,244 1,225 1,2795 1,2795 355 EURJPY LONG 0,1 106,22 105   105 -122 USDJPY LONG 0,1 80 78 84 78 -200 EURUSD LONG 0,1 1,2405 1,22 1,265 1,269 285 USDJPY LONG 0,1 78,95 77,5 83 WORKING