MORE THOUGHTS ON MY OPEN USDJPY TRADE

Last week the pair tried to shook all the long players by giving them a fast down move. However as  i have said in my last update the pair close the week indicating that  the bull trend is not over . Indeed this was confirmed this week during which the pair has exploded and broke the 80.50 resistance due to main political developments .Next stop now  81.10 and then  84!! Below are my thoughts as events were unfolded last week

On 14/11/2012 - PM Noda has proposed  election if the opposition party  agrees to vote for the reforms .  This gave a boost to the pair  which startedrising and made a daily move  of allmost 100pips!!! It appears that a wave 3 starts which will shoot the currency above 83!None the less there is the  80.50 resistance still looming

15/11/2012 -  Finally the pair has taken the 80.50 resistance clearing the way  for 83 level . Although it has been driven by mainly  local events and political comments referering to prospective elections  it should be
noted that there is  risk aversion mode on the markets after Israel  kills Hamas military leader.

So here  we are at the end of this week and the pair has closed  at 81.29. Nonetheless it hasnt stopped to makes me wondering why this move has been initiated now? Many say that the fact that Japan is going to elections and the party which will probable win is a strong believer of more quantitative easing is one reason. Others say that is the political instability that makes people to sell the currency . If that is the case then why  is the Nikkei rising so strong?In the other hand we have  important geopolitical events in the middle east with Israel attacking hamas and killing their leader  which may  unfold to a big war in the area which is something that would be very bad for the global  stockmarkets. It is known so far that risk on mentality in the markets is positively corelated with the USDJPY pair (when markets rise so does the pair).

Overall, even though technically the rise has been excpected by me i still cant understand the fundamentals behind it(why now?) and i am troubled as to how far more the pair could climb in the near future .Of course, for the long term  i have been  very bear  for this pair and it has been also one of my two strategic trades that i have initiated in the beginning of the year (in addition to the trade i ahave also place a month a go which is more shorterm)