Κυριακή 23 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

REVEW OF MY TRADING YEAR 2012 / +12.9% YEARLY RETURN ON MY CAPITAL

The first year of my trading project  has come to en end succesfully. When i started this blog , my goal was to be able  to have yearly retuns of  at least 10% on my initial capital which was 10,000 usd. Every position that i entered was 1 mini lot except my strategic position in EURCHF.  During the year  i took  a total  of 12 trades  with a total profit of  1290 pips equalled to 1290 usd  (at least).


 As it can be seen  i took only  buy positions which is not something that i did intentionally . A further analysis  for my startegic position on EURCHF will follow.

Also as it can be seen from above  i did not trade every month. During June, July,September i was either  managing open positions or  staying out of the market due to not clear signals. In that way  i avoided overtrading.




Δευτέρα 17 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

Κυριακή 16 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

ENDING MY TRADING FOR 2012

2012 is almost  finished and  i think its time to close  my trading year as well.

I have  two trades open:

1) EURCHF which was my strategic yearly  trade and

2)AUDUSD which was initiated at the end of November

I will close my EURCHF when markets open on Monday morning  and raise my stop loss to break evene for my AUDUSD trade

Next Weekend would be my final update for this year revewing all my trades and how i did

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 17 DEC - 25 DEC

The two main events were the rise in the EURUSD and the significant weakening of the yen. Since we enter in the holiday season i expect  that the market will not trade rattional and although  i will be wathing i am not expecting moves to make sence since all the big players are standing aside waiting for the new year

EURUSD:  The pair finished the week strong climbing to 1.3160 and making all the short players out there to feel very uncomfortable. It remains to see if it can break the remaining1.3180 level which will skyrocket the pair very fast to 1.3480

EURJPY:   The pair closed the week at 109.90 !!!! It has climbe a lot and a correction is long overdue. I expect above 110-111 to find a significant resistance and stall for a while. Bias remains bullish

EURAUD:The picture in this pair is gettinbg vlearer this weak . Many indicators have turned bullish and  the pair is getting also affected by the stronger euro. My bias is buy with a s/l at 1.2290 . However it is not yet at trend

EURCHF: The pair had a spike at the beginning of last week reaching close to 1.22. However it then falls again. Although, it gives some indication that it is getting out of the come is still a very tricky pair. Someone could play the long side with a s/l at 1.2020 and t/p 1.22

USDCHF:  As I have already mentioned this pair is the alter ego of EURUSD. As a result since EURUSD is rising this pair  is falling and the opposite

GBPUSD:  The pair managed to change to uptrend mode last week. Nonetheless i am not very convinced and i don’t believe that it has a lot of a potential  in the upside. Not very clear picture for this pair either

USDJPY:  The pair have broken form a bulish flag(continuation formation). Having taken out the 83 level is aming the  84.and then 85.50 !

AUDUSD:   This pair is also in a buy mode . However, it seems that it has  problem to rise as fast as the other risk on pair  which make me wonder if the rise  is meant to be short lived. Nonethe less  i remain bulish as long as it trades above 1.0380!





USDJPY CLOSED SUCCESSFULLY - T/P FILLED +400 PIPS

After 3 months  my trade was finally closed . It was a smooth trade and very  well  behaved allthough it took more time that i was anticipating. Although that many believed that the main driver for yen weakening would be BOJ finally it was political .... Election were announced for  16 December and  Noda 's party lost . The new leader is a bold supparter of a further drastic QE


R.DALIO'S INTERVEW ON CHARLI ROSE( NEW YORK TIMES)


Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, didn’t used to do many media appearances. But a series of big magazine profiles that focused on the intense culture of his Connecticut-based hedge fund seem to have eased the billionaire out of his shell.

On Thursday, Mr. Dalio appeared on Charlie Rose‘s program on PBS to talk about the economy, and to address the accusations that Bridgewater — which is governed by a set of rules laid out in Mr. Dalio’s business manifesto, “Principles” — is a cult of personality

“It’s a global macro firm,” said Mr. Dalio, who eschewed his usual wardrobe of khakis and untucked shirts for a dark suit and red tie.

For more than half an hour, Mr. Rose and Mr. Dalio talked about the state of the world economy. Mr. Dalio explained his oft-repeated “deleveraging” theory, in which debts rise relative to incomes in a nation until the country, under threat of default, takes stimulative actions to bring the debt-to-income ratio back to more stable levels. Mr. Dalio told the host he believed the United States is in a deleveraging process, but said that economic catastrophe could be averted if careful action is taken.

“The key is to spread it out as much as you can, to make sure it’s not disorderly” Mr. Dalio said of the deleveraging process. 

Mr. Rose asked Mr. Dalio, who has pledged to give away at least half his wealth as part of a giving pledge engineered by Warren E. Buffett, if he supported a so-called Buffett Rule that would raise taxes on the top income brackets. Mr. Dalio said that he did support the plan, but that he wanted to make sure his tax money was being put to good use.

“I’m going to give away a lot more than half my money,” said Mr. Dalio, who made more than $3 billion in 2010. “I’d be happy to give that to the government if the government put together programs that were like I’m giving away to charity, in which I believe the money is effectively used to help people.”

Mr. Dalio defended Bridgewater’s culture, which emphasizes radical honesty and encourages employees to criticize each other, by saying that it was “exactly the opposite of a cult.” He said that the firm’s culture of institutionalized bickering actually made it more productive.

“If people who are disagreeing can say, ‘Why do we disagree?’ and work through that conversation in an intelligent way to try to find out what’s true, you can learn, you can make progress,” he said. “It can be a fabulous thing.”

The Occupy Wall Street movement, a go-to topic for journalists interviewing financiers since the protests in Lower Manhattan began, also came up in the segment. Mr. Dalio said he understood the frustration expressed by the protesters, but added that he did not believe he had done anything to deserve the ire of the 99 percent.

“I think I did everything right,” he said. “I did well when others didn’t. I happen to earn one-fifth of the profits. I pay about a third in taxes, I give away about a third, and I follow the law. And if I’m doing something they think is incorrect, I’d like to know that.”

And despite his bearish outlook on the domestic economy, Mr. Dalio ended the interview on a caveat-laden note of hope. 

“If we can keep orderly, and not argue with each other, and not do disruptive things, and we don’t go down,” he said. “Maybe then it’ll be O.K.”

( http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/bridgewaters-dalio-i-think-i-did-everything-right/)

You can watch the full intervew here
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11957

JOHN TAYLOR : WHICH CURRENCIES TO INVEST IN?




RAY DALIO-COMMENT ON BARRON

"Barron's: I can't think of anyone who was earlier in describing the deleveraging and deflationary process that has been happening around the world.

Dalio: Let's call it a "D-process," which is different than a recession, and the only reason that people really don't understand this process is because it happens rarely. Everybody should, at this point, try to understand the depression process by reading about the Great Depression or the Latin American debt crisis or the Japanese experience so that it becomes part of their frame of reference.

Most people didn't live through any of those experiences, and what they have gotten used to is the recession dynamic, and so they are quick to presume the recession dynamic. It is very clear to me that we are in a D-process..."

QE TIMELINE

November 25, 2008: Press Release: $100 Billion GSE direct obligations, $500 billion in MBS
December 16, 2008 FOMC Statement: Evaluating benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury Securities

January 28, 2009: FOMC Statement: FOMC Stands Ready to expand program.

March 18, 2009: FOMC Statement: Expand MBS program to $1.25 trillion, buy up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities

March 31, 2010: QE1 purchases were completed at the end of Q1 2010.

August 27, 2010: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hints at QE2: Analysis: Bernanke paves the way for QE2

November 3, 2010: FOMC Statement: $600 Billion QE2 announced.

June 30, 2011: QE2 purchases were completed at the end of Q2 2011.

September 21, 2011: "Operation Twist" announced. "The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less."

QE Timeline
June 20, 2012: "Operation Twist" extended. "The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities."

August 31, 2012: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hints at QE3:









the above article has been  kindly  borrowed by the following site: Calculated risk Blog
(http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/qe-timeline-update.html)

Κυριακή 9 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

UDPDATE ON MY TWO OPEN TRADES

USDJPY:  I beleive that is making a bullish flag  which is indicating the continuation of the trend  . I remain with my s/l at 81.50 and expect my t/p to be hit  at the begining of this week.



AUDUSD:This pair has not behaved as i was expecting. Although it has taken out the 1.0480 resistance it hasnt gained momentum closing the week at 1.0484.I will raise my s/l at 1.0320 and be vigilant to rethink and maybe  close it if it doesnt climb above 1.05 on Monday close.

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 10 DEC - 15 DEC

The two most important events of last week was ECB 's president interview on Thursday and Payrolls announcement on Friday. This week the market expects the FOMC meeting which will be the main event of the week. We are close to mid of December now and flows are getting thinner. This may result to sharp moves with no real direction.

EURUSD:  The pair took a bitten after Mario's Draghi interview last Thursday in which he implied that ECB will cut rates next month.. Nonetheless the currency is still in a buy mode since it trades above 1.2865 and as it can be seen in my system below both wave and trend remain bullish. As long as this level hold(daily closing)  my view remains for  1.3480 until end of month or first days of January 

EURJPY:  This pair mirrored EURUSD move since USDJPY remained in consolidation around 82.30area. I remain extremely bullish and even though we may see  a small retreat  in prices around 105 area i believe that the pair is still going to reach 110!

EURAUD: Although we are a slightly bullish bias since 1.2290 level holds, the system shows that most indicator are still negative. Overall we can say that if only breaks the 1.2290 we may becoming more confident that the pair will fall further.However there is not a clear picture for this pair at the moment

EURCHF: The pair had a spike at the beginning of last week reaching close to 1.22. However it then falls again. Although, it gives some indication that it is getting out of the come is still a very tricky pair. Someone could play the long side with a s/l at 1.2020 and t/p 1.22

USDCHF:  As I have already mentioned this pair is the alter ego of EURUSD. As a result since EURUSD is rising this pair  is falling and the opposite

GBPUSD:  The pair managed to change to uptrend mode last week. Nonetheless i am not very convinced and i don’t believe that it has a lot of a potential  in the upside. Not very clear picture for this pair either

USDJPY:  The pair is still in an uptrend. However it has stalled last week and it seems that it has been trapped between 81.60-82.80. Indicators are bullish and it remains to see which way will break first. If 81.60 breaks then we may see a further fall to 80.80 before the pair resume its uptrend. If in the other hand it break 82.80 then the pair gains momentum and it will climb to 84.00 very  fast

AUDUSD:   This pair is also in a buy mode.  Although  it has a difficulty to break the 1.0510 resistance  still has the p[potential to clime to 1.07 as long as it doesn’t break 1.0320






Κυριακή 2 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 03 DEC - 10 DEC

Last week we had a consolidation in most pairs since it was  closing of the month and market had many corporate flows. Nonetheless EUR has managed to rise against most crosses indicating a further rise

EURUSD:  The pair  is in a buy mode. It is struggling to break  1.30 . Nonethe less my system shows that next week it will rise further  . Still 1.35 is my target

EURJPY:   This pair continues to be in a strong uptrend getting favoured by the rise in euro and the weakening in the yen .The pair fall early week only to recoup its losses and rise further. 107 target has been reached and now it is eyeing the 110 level

EURAUD: The pair  changed trend last week and now is in a buy mode. However we may see a small retracement before it can climb further

EURCHF: The pair is in the dark bear zone. Strong down (again after a small break of a couple of months the indicators have turned red again)

USDCHF:  As I have already mentioned this pair is the alter ego of EURUSD. As a result since EURUSD is rising this pair  is falling . first target 92.10. If this level breaks we will see a sharp decline to 90.60 area

GBPUSD:  This pair is still in a downtrend but with not any momentum left at the moment.  Tried to break higher last week but it did not suceed . As a result i expect it to resume its downtrend this week with a target 1.5850

USDJPY:  The pair fall last week affected by some profit taking . It has tried twice to break  83 level but not succed. I expect to see a break of that level this week. If not then uptrend will mean that has been exausted for the time being and  we will have a sharp decline to 80.80
 
AUDUSD:   Although this pair has finally gave a buy signal at the  beginning of last week it hasnt managed to established a strong uptrend. It is still consolidating in 1.04 -1.05 area . In the beginning of the week we may see a furtehr decline to 1.0380 before  it resumes a strong uptrend to 1.07 


END OF NOVEMBER P/L REPORT [ 0 PIPS] - ONE NEW TRADE OPEN

 November was not a very exiting month. Yen was the star as market expect to be depreciated dramatically after the new government is elected at the beginning of the December.

I have opened a long AUDUSD trade and i have still open a long USDJPY  since October

Below is a graph of how i have done since the beginning of the year. I still have my strategic longs in EURCHF and USDJPY.


PIPS FEB MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER
BIGGEST  MONTHLY DRAWBACK -80 0 -122 -200 0 0 0 0 0 0
P/L  512 495 -122 -200 0 0 285 0 0 0
EQUITY 512 1007 885 685 685 685 970 970 970 970

UPDATE ON MY LONG USDJPY TRADE

The pair is very close to my target . I decided to raise my s/l at 81.50!I believe that it should reach its target this week.

UPDATE ON MY LONG AUDUSD TRADE

The pair didnt behave as i was expecting last week. Nonetheless i believe that it has still the potential to rise. This week RBA announce rates and i expect to leave them unchanged which may be the trigger for the pair to break above 1.06. I remain long  with my s/l at  1.0290 and t/p at 1.07