Below is an intervew of John Taylor on Opalesque tv . He discusses several issues of FX market
Κυριακή 25 Νοεμβρίου 2012
Κυριακή 18 Νοεμβρίου 2012
MORE THOUGHTS ON MY OPEN USDJPY TRADE
Last week the pair tried to shook all the long players by giving them a fast down move. However as i have said in my last update the pair close the week indicating that the bull trend is not over . Indeed this was confirmed this week during which the pair has exploded and broke the 80.50 resistance due to main political developments .Next stop now 81.10 and then 84!! Below are my thoughts as events were unfolded last week
On 14/11/2012 - PM Noda has proposed election if the opposition party agrees to vote for the reforms . This gave a boost to the pair which startedrising and made a daily move of allmost 100pips!!! It appears that a wave 3 starts which will shoot the currency above 83!None the less there is the 80.50 resistance still looming
15/11/2012 - Finally the pair has taken the 80.50 resistance clearing the way for 83 level . Although it has been driven by mainly local events and political comments referering to prospective elections it should be
noted that there is risk aversion mode on the markets after Israel kills Hamas military leader.
So here we are at the end of this week and the pair has closed at 81.29. Nonetheless it hasnt stopped to makes me wondering why this move has been initiated now? Many say that the fact that Japan is going to elections and the party which will probable win is a strong believer of more quantitative easing is one reason. Others say that is the political instability that makes people to sell the currency . If that is the case then why is the Nikkei rising so strong?In the other hand we have important geopolitical events in the middle east with Israel attacking hamas and killing their leader which may unfold to a big war in the area which is something that would be very bad for the global stockmarkets. It is known so far that risk on mentality in the markets is positively corelated with the USDJPY pair (when markets rise so does the pair).
Overall, even though technically the rise has been excpected by me i still cant understand the fundamentals behind it(why now?) and i am troubled as to how far more the pair could climb in the near future .Of course, for the long term i have been very bear for this pair and it has been also one of my two strategic trades that i have initiated in the beginning of the year (in addition to the trade i ahave also place a month a go which is more shorterm)
G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 19 NOV - 25 NOV
The most important events in the economic calendar for the coming week are : 1) The announcement of rates by the Bank of Japan on Monday , 2) The speach of RBA gov Stevens on Tusday , 3) The speach of Ben Bernanke also on Tusday, 4) German Ifo business climate on Friday. In addition we have a Eurogroup on Tusday where decision for Greece are expected to be made and ongoing talks for the Fiscall cliff
EURUSD: The weekly is in a buy mode but with not a clear trend . Daily in the other hand shows a strong downtrend. None the less indicators show that we may have a retracement up to 1.2850-1.29 area in the beginning of the week (events related) before a new strong downtrend resume.
EURJPY: Both weekly and daily indicators shows a strong uptrend . With a a fair value around 101.70 the pair has a lot of upward potential . If it breaks 104.70 resistance then it will climb fast to 107 and then 110 area
EURAUD: In weekly the pair is bear without though being able to give a sell signal yet . In the daily however the picture is very different . Most of the indicators point down and only a break of 1.2420 area would change the momentum dramatically and give a a strong buy signal
EURCHF: Strong down (again after a small break of a couple of months the idicators have turned red again)
USDCHF: Strong up by most of indicators . This pair is behaving exactly opposite of what eurusd does
GBPUSD : This pair is getting ready for a bit fall propable to 1.51 level. Although it has a strong doward weekly wave momentum, the weekly up trend still remains intact. In the daily however is in a clear downtrend both trend and wave.
USDJPY: This pair is in a strong uptrend which probable will lead it to 84 and then 92 area
AUDUSD: The analysis in this pait give mixed results. It is slightly bear but it is better to wait . If it fades the fall and breaks 1.0460 it would be a strong buy !
Κυριακή 11 Νοεμβρίου 2012
UPDATE ON MY USDJPY OPEN TRADE
The USDJPY has a bad week due to risk aversion and the fall in equities.My trade is still active and even though the pair had a fall all the uptrend boundaries are intact and also the JPY crosses seems to hold. At the end of October we had the BOJ announcing the QE measures for supporting the economy. Many tried to speculate on the currency, days before that the QE announcement would be much higher than excpected and this probable had serious effect on the early rise of the pair.
However , after the announcement the pair fall .Nonetheless, the fact that is still holding is also the rise in US treasury yields. This makes me to come to the conclusion that the main factor which moves this pair is US bond yileds and this should be taken under great account.
Κυριακή 4 Νοεμβρίου 2012
END OF OCTOBER P/L REPORT [ 0 PIPS] - 1 ACTIVE TRADE STILL WORKING
This month I took only one trade (long USDJPY )which is still active.
Below is a graph of how i have done since the beginning of the year. I still have open my longs in EURCHF and USDJPY.
Below is my blotter since the beginning of the year
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