Κυριακή 23 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

REVEW OF MY TRADING YEAR 2012 / +12.9% YEARLY RETURN ON MY CAPITAL

The first year of my trading project  has come to en end succesfully. When i started this blog , my goal was to be able  to have yearly retuns of  at least 10% on my initial capital which was 10,000 usd. Every position that i entered was 1 mini lot except my strategic position in EURCHF.  During the year  i took  a total  of 12 trades  with a total profit of  1290 pips equalled to 1290 usd  (at least).


 As it can be seen  i took only  buy positions which is not something that i did intentionally . A further analysis  for my startegic position on EURCHF will follow.

Also as it can be seen from above  i did not trade every month. During June, July,September i was either  managing open positions or  staying out of the market due to not clear signals. In that way  i avoided overtrading.




Δευτέρα 17 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

Κυριακή 16 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

ENDING MY TRADING FOR 2012

2012 is almost  finished and  i think its time to close  my trading year as well.

I have  two trades open:

1) EURCHF which was my strategic yearly  trade and

2)AUDUSD which was initiated at the end of November

I will close my EURCHF when markets open on Monday morning  and raise my stop loss to break evene for my AUDUSD trade

Next Weekend would be my final update for this year revewing all my trades and how i did

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 17 DEC - 25 DEC

The two main events were the rise in the EURUSD and the significant weakening of the yen. Since we enter in the holiday season i expect  that the market will not trade rattional and although  i will be wathing i am not expecting moves to make sence since all the big players are standing aside waiting for the new year

EURUSD:  The pair finished the week strong climbing to 1.3160 and making all the short players out there to feel very uncomfortable. It remains to see if it can break the remaining1.3180 level which will skyrocket the pair very fast to 1.3480

EURJPY:   The pair closed the week at 109.90 !!!! It has climbe a lot and a correction is long overdue. I expect above 110-111 to find a significant resistance and stall for a while. Bias remains bullish

EURAUD:The picture in this pair is gettinbg vlearer this weak . Many indicators have turned bullish and  the pair is getting also affected by the stronger euro. My bias is buy with a s/l at 1.2290 . However it is not yet at trend

EURCHF: The pair had a spike at the beginning of last week reaching close to 1.22. However it then falls again. Although, it gives some indication that it is getting out of the come is still a very tricky pair. Someone could play the long side with a s/l at 1.2020 and t/p 1.22

USDCHF:  As I have already mentioned this pair is the alter ego of EURUSD. As a result since EURUSD is rising this pair  is falling and the opposite

GBPUSD:  The pair managed to change to uptrend mode last week. Nonetheless i am not very convinced and i don’t believe that it has a lot of a potential  in the upside. Not very clear picture for this pair either

USDJPY:  The pair have broken form a bulish flag(continuation formation). Having taken out the 83 level is aming the  84.and then 85.50 !

AUDUSD:   This pair is also in a buy mode . However, it seems that it has  problem to rise as fast as the other risk on pair  which make me wonder if the rise  is meant to be short lived. Nonethe less  i remain bulish as long as it trades above 1.0380!





USDJPY CLOSED SUCCESSFULLY - T/P FILLED +400 PIPS

After 3 months  my trade was finally closed . It was a smooth trade and very  well  behaved allthough it took more time that i was anticipating. Although that many believed that the main driver for yen weakening would be BOJ finally it was political .... Election were announced for  16 December and  Noda 's party lost . The new leader is a bold supparter of a further drastic QE


R.DALIO'S INTERVEW ON CHARLI ROSE( NEW YORK TIMES)


Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, didn’t used to do many media appearances. But a series of big magazine profiles that focused on the intense culture of his Connecticut-based hedge fund seem to have eased the billionaire out of his shell.

On Thursday, Mr. Dalio appeared on Charlie Rose‘s program on PBS to talk about the economy, and to address the accusations that Bridgewater — which is governed by a set of rules laid out in Mr. Dalio’s business manifesto, “Principles” — is a cult of personality

“It’s a global macro firm,” said Mr. Dalio, who eschewed his usual wardrobe of khakis and untucked shirts for a dark suit and red tie.

For more than half an hour, Mr. Rose and Mr. Dalio talked about the state of the world economy. Mr. Dalio explained his oft-repeated “deleveraging” theory, in which debts rise relative to incomes in a nation until the country, under threat of default, takes stimulative actions to bring the debt-to-income ratio back to more stable levels. Mr. Dalio told the host he believed the United States is in a deleveraging process, but said that economic catastrophe could be averted if careful action is taken.

“The key is to spread it out as much as you can, to make sure it’s not disorderly” Mr. Dalio said of the deleveraging process. 

Mr. Rose asked Mr. Dalio, who has pledged to give away at least half his wealth as part of a giving pledge engineered by Warren E. Buffett, if he supported a so-called Buffett Rule that would raise taxes on the top income brackets. Mr. Dalio said that he did support the plan, but that he wanted to make sure his tax money was being put to good use.

“I’m going to give away a lot more than half my money,” said Mr. Dalio, who made more than $3 billion in 2010. “I’d be happy to give that to the government if the government put together programs that were like I’m giving away to charity, in which I believe the money is effectively used to help people.”

Mr. Dalio defended Bridgewater’s culture, which emphasizes radical honesty and encourages employees to criticize each other, by saying that it was “exactly the opposite of a cult.” He said that the firm’s culture of institutionalized bickering actually made it more productive.

“If people who are disagreeing can say, ‘Why do we disagree?’ and work through that conversation in an intelligent way to try to find out what’s true, you can learn, you can make progress,” he said. “It can be a fabulous thing.”

The Occupy Wall Street movement, a go-to topic for journalists interviewing financiers since the protests in Lower Manhattan began, also came up in the segment. Mr. Dalio said he understood the frustration expressed by the protesters, but added that he did not believe he had done anything to deserve the ire of the 99 percent.

“I think I did everything right,” he said. “I did well when others didn’t. I happen to earn one-fifth of the profits. I pay about a third in taxes, I give away about a third, and I follow the law. And if I’m doing something they think is incorrect, I’d like to know that.”

And despite his bearish outlook on the domestic economy, Mr. Dalio ended the interview on a caveat-laden note of hope. 

“If we can keep orderly, and not argue with each other, and not do disruptive things, and we don’t go down,” he said. “Maybe then it’ll be O.K.”

( http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/bridgewaters-dalio-i-think-i-did-everything-right/)

You can watch the full intervew here
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11957

JOHN TAYLOR : WHICH CURRENCIES TO INVEST IN?




RAY DALIO-COMMENT ON BARRON

"Barron's: I can't think of anyone who was earlier in describing the deleveraging and deflationary process that has been happening around the world.

Dalio: Let's call it a "D-process," which is different than a recession, and the only reason that people really don't understand this process is because it happens rarely. Everybody should, at this point, try to understand the depression process by reading about the Great Depression or the Latin American debt crisis or the Japanese experience so that it becomes part of their frame of reference.

Most people didn't live through any of those experiences, and what they have gotten used to is the recession dynamic, and so they are quick to presume the recession dynamic. It is very clear to me that we are in a D-process..."

QE TIMELINE

November 25, 2008: Press Release: $100 Billion GSE direct obligations, $500 billion in MBS
December 16, 2008 FOMC Statement: Evaluating benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury Securities

January 28, 2009: FOMC Statement: FOMC Stands Ready to expand program.

March 18, 2009: FOMC Statement: Expand MBS program to $1.25 trillion, buy up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities

March 31, 2010: QE1 purchases were completed at the end of Q1 2010.

August 27, 2010: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hints at QE2: Analysis: Bernanke paves the way for QE2

November 3, 2010: FOMC Statement: $600 Billion QE2 announced.

June 30, 2011: QE2 purchases were completed at the end of Q2 2011.

September 21, 2011: "Operation Twist" announced. "The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less."

QE Timeline
June 20, 2012: "Operation Twist" extended. "The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities."

August 31, 2012: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hints at QE3:









the above article has been  kindly  borrowed by the following site: Calculated risk Blog
(http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/qe-timeline-update.html)

Κυριακή 9 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

UDPDATE ON MY TWO OPEN TRADES

USDJPY:  I beleive that is making a bullish flag  which is indicating the continuation of the trend  . I remain with my s/l at 81.50 and expect my t/p to be hit  at the begining of this week.



AUDUSD:This pair has not behaved as i was expecting. Although it has taken out the 1.0480 resistance it hasnt gained momentum closing the week at 1.0484.I will raise my s/l at 1.0320 and be vigilant to rethink and maybe  close it if it doesnt climb above 1.05 on Monday close.

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 10 DEC - 15 DEC

The two most important events of last week was ECB 's president interview on Thursday and Payrolls announcement on Friday. This week the market expects the FOMC meeting which will be the main event of the week. We are close to mid of December now and flows are getting thinner. This may result to sharp moves with no real direction.

EURUSD:  The pair took a bitten after Mario's Draghi interview last Thursday in which he implied that ECB will cut rates next month.. Nonetheless the currency is still in a buy mode since it trades above 1.2865 and as it can be seen in my system below both wave and trend remain bullish. As long as this level hold(daily closing)  my view remains for  1.3480 until end of month or first days of January 

EURJPY:  This pair mirrored EURUSD move since USDJPY remained in consolidation around 82.30area. I remain extremely bullish and even though we may see  a small retreat  in prices around 105 area i believe that the pair is still going to reach 110!

EURAUD: Although we are a slightly bullish bias since 1.2290 level holds, the system shows that most indicator are still negative. Overall we can say that if only breaks the 1.2290 we may becoming more confident that the pair will fall further.However there is not a clear picture for this pair at the moment

EURCHF: The pair had a spike at the beginning of last week reaching close to 1.22. However it then falls again. Although, it gives some indication that it is getting out of the come is still a very tricky pair. Someone could play the long side with a s/l at 1.2020 and t/p 1.22

USDCHF:  As I have already mentioned this pair is the alter ego of EURUSD. As a result since EURUSD is rising this pair  is falling and the opposite

GBPUSD:  The pair managed to change to uptrend mode last week. Nonetheless i am not very convinced and i don’t believe that it has a lot of a potential  in the upside. Not very clear picture for this pair either

USDJPY:  The pair is still in an uptrend. However it has stalled last week and it seems that it has been trapped between 81.60-82.80. Indicators are bullish and it remains to see which way will break first. If 81.60 breaks then we may see a further fall to 80.80 before the pair resume its uptrend. If in the other hand it break 82.80 then the pair gains momentum and it will climb to 84.00 very  fast

AUDUSD:   This pair is also in a buy mode.  Although  it has a difficulty to break the 1.0510 resistance  still has the p[potential to clime to 1.07 as long as it doesn’t break 1.0320






Κυριακή 2 Δεκεμβρίου 2012

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 03 DEC - 10 DEC

Last week we had a consolidation in most pairs since it was  closing of the month and market had many corporate flows. Nonetheless EUR has managed to rise against most crosses indicating a further rise

EURUSD:  The pair  is in a buy mode. It is struggling to break  1.30 . Nonethe less my system shows that next week it will rise further  . Still 1.35 is my target

EURJPY:   This pair continues to be in a strong uptrend getting favoured by the rise in euro and the weakening in the yen .The pair fall early week only to recoup its losses and rise further. 107 target has been reached and now it is eyeing the 110 level

EURAUD: The pair  changed trend last week and now is in a buy mode. However we may see a small retracement before it can climb further

EURCHF: The pair is in the dark bear zone. Strong down (again after a small break of a couple of months the indicators have turned red again)

USDCHF:  As I have already mentioned this pair is the alter ego of EURUSD. As a result since EURUSD is rising this pair  is falling . first target 92.10. If this level breaks we will see a sharp decline to 90.60 area

GBPUSD:  This pair is still in a downtrend but with not any momentum left at the moment.  Tried to break higher last week but it did not suceed . As a result i expect it to resume its downtrend this week with a target 1.5850

USDJPY:  The pair fall last week affected by some profit taking . It has tried twice to break  83 level but not succed. I expect to see a break of that level this week. If not then uptrend will mean that has been exausted for the time being and  we will have a sharp decline to 80.80
 
AUDUSD:   Although this pair has finally gave a buy signal at the  beginning of last week it hasnt managed to established a strong uptrend. It is still consolidating in 1.04 -1.05 area . In the beginning of the week we may see a furtehr decline to 1.0380 before  it resumes a strong uptrend to 1.07 


END OF NOVEMBER P/L REPORT [ 0 PIPS] - ONE NEW TRADE OPEN

 November was not a very exiting month. Yen was the star as market expect to be depreciated dramatically after the new government is elected at the beginning of the December.

I have opened a long AUDUSD trade and i have still open a long USDJPY  since October

Below is a graph of how i have done since the beginning of the year. I still have my strategic longs in EURCHF and USDJPY.


PIPS FEB MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER
BIGGEST  MONTHLY DRAWBACK -80 0 -122 -200 0 0 0 0 0 0
P/L  512 495 -122 -200 0 0 285 0 0 0
EQUITY 512 1007 885 685 685 685 970 970 970 970

UPDATE ON MY LONG USDJPY TRADE

The pair is very close to my target . I decided to raise my s/l at 81.50!I believe that it should reach its target this week.

UPDATE ON MY LONG AUDUSD TRADE

The pair didnt behave as i was expecting last week. Nonetheless i believe that it has still the potential to rise. This week RBA announce rates and i expect to leave them unchanged which may be the trigger for the pair to break above 1.06. I remain long  with my s/l at  1.0290 and t/p at 1.07

Κυριακή 25 Νοεμβρίου 2012

TRADE IDEA FOR THIS WEEK- LONG AUDUSD @ OPENING(1.0465)

UPDATE 09/12/2012:The pair has not behaved as i was expecting. Although it has taken out the 1.0480 resistance it hasnt gained momentum closing the week at 1.0484.I will raise my s/l at 1.0320 and be vigilant to rethink and maybe  close it if it doesnt climb above 1.05 on Monday close.

UDPATE 29/11/2012:  I have entered  my trade at  1.0465 erly monday morning

The pair gave  a buy signal last Friday

I will enter (market)long at the opening of Monday session (00:01) with a target 1.07 and s/l 1.0290.

I will keep a  tight trailing stop on this trade as i expect the movement to be impulsive. Bear in mind that i have still open my USDJPY trade.



G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 26 NOV - 30 NOV

The closing of last week was very event full in the FX world.  Although we had a bank holiday on Thursday and Friday in US market (due to thanks giving), Fridays close gave many trend reversal signals to the main pairs. More specifically we have now a verified uptrend in EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD and nice breakout at Gold as well! Below is my weekly analysis

EURUSD:  The pair gave a buy signal on Friday! It has entered in an uptrend mode in both daily and weekly. Most probable target now is 1.3500

EURJPY:   This pair continues to be in a strong uptrend getting favoured by the rise in euro and the weakening in the yen .As I said last week since the pair managed to break the 104.70 resistance is now targeting 107 and then 110.

EURAUD: The pair gives mixed signals with the bear bias still being the stronger. As I said last week only a break of 1.2420 would change the trend and give a strong buy signal

EURCHF: The pair is in the dark bear zone. Strong down (again after a small break of a couple of months the indicators have turned red again)

USDCHF:  As I have already mentioned this pair is the alter ego of EURUSD. As a result since EURUSD gave a buy signal this gave a sell.

GBPUSD:  This was the pair that favoured the list by the risk on mentality last week. Still in a downtrend but with not any momentum left at the moment. Not a very clear picture

USDJPY:   The star of the last few weeks. The pair is continuing its strong uptrend in full throttle! All indicators are at buy mode. I expect to reach 84 next week and then 92 in the following weeks after

AUDUSD:  Last week the pair did not have a clear picture. However, since the closing of last Friday it has given a strong buy signal. First target 1.0620 and then  1.0800










JIM RICKARDS: A CURRENCY WAR SIMULATION


JOHN TAYLOR ANALYSES FX INDUSTRY AND HOW ITS HAS BEEN TRANSFORMED OVER THE YEARS

Below is an intervew of John Taylor on Opalesque tv . He discusses several issues of FX market




Κυριακή 18 Νοεμβρίου 2012

MORE THOUGHTS ON MY OPEN USDJPY TRADE

Last week the pair tried to shook all the long players by giving them a fast down move. However as  i have said in my last update the pair close the week indicating that  the bull trend is not over . Indeed this was confirmed this week during which the pair has exploded and broke the 80.50 resistance due to main political developments .Next stop now  81.10 and then  84!! Below are my thoughts as events were unfolded last week

On 14/11/2012 - PM Noda has proposed  election if the opposition party  agrees to vote for the reforms .  This gave a boost to the pair  which startedrising and made a daily move  of allmost 100pips!!! It appears that a wave 3 starts which will shoot the currency above 83!None the less there is the  80.50 resistance still looming

15/11/2012 -  Finally the pair has taken the 80.50 resistance clearing the way  for 83 level . Although it has been driven by mainly  local events and political comments referering to prospective elections  it should be
noted that there is  risk aversion mode on the markets after Israel  kills Hamas military leader.


So here  we are at the end of this week and the pair has closed  at 81.29. Nonetheless it hasnt stopped to makes me wondering why this move has been initiated now? Many say that the fact that Japan is going to elections and the party which will probable win is a strong believer of more quantitative easing is one reason. Others say that is the political instability that makes people to sell the currency . If that is the case then why  is the Nikkei rising so strong?In the other hand we have  important geopolitical events in the middle east with Israel attacking hamas and killing their leader  which may  unfold to a big war in the area which is something that would be very bad for the global  stockmarkets. It is known so far that risk on mentality in the markets is positively corelated with the USDJPY pair (when markets rise so does the pair).

Overall, even though technically the rise has been excpected by me i still cant understand the fundamentals behind it(why now?) and i am troubled as to how far more the pair could climb in the near future .Of course, for the long term  i have been  very bear  for this pair and it has been also one of my two strategic trades that i have initiated in the beginning of the year (in addition to the trade i ahave also place a month a go which is more shorterm)

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 19 NOV - 25 NOV

The most important events in the economic calendar for the coming week are : 1) The announcement of  rates by the Bank of Japan on Monday , 2) The speach of RBA gov Stevens on Tusday , 3) The speach of Ben Bernanke also on Tusday, 4) German Ifo business climate on Friday. In addition we have a Eurogroup on Tusday where decision for Greece are expected to be made and  ongoing talks for the Fiscall cliff









EURUSD: The weekly is in a buy mode but with not a clear trend  . Daily in the other hand shows a strong downtrend. None the less indicators show that we may have a retracement up to 1.2850-1.29 area in the beginning of the week (events related) before a new strong downtrend resume. 

EURJPY:  Both weekly and daily  indicators shows a strong uptrend . With a a fair value around  101.70 the pair has a lot of upward potential . If it breaks  104.70 resistance then it will climb fast to 107 and then  110 area 

EURAUD: In weekly the pair is bear without though being able to give a sell signal yet . In the daily however the picture is very  different . Most of the indicators point down  and only a break of  1.2420 area would change the momentum dramatically and give a a strong buy signal

EURCHF: Strong down (again after a small break of a couple of months the idicators have turned red again)

USDCHF: Strong up by most of indicators . This pair is behaving exactly opposite of what eurusd does

GBPUSD : This pair is getting ready for a  bit fall propable to 1.51 level. Although it has a strong doward weekly wave momentum, the weekly up trend still remains intact. In the daily however is in a clear downtrend both trend and wave.

USDJPY: This pair is in a strong uptrend which probable will lead it to  84 and then 92 area

AUDUSD: The analysis in this pait give mixed results. It is slightly bear but it is better to wait . If it fades the fall and breaks 1.0460 it would be a strong buy !






Κυριακή 11 Νοεμβρίου 2012

UPDATE ON MY USDJPY OPEN TRADE

The USDJPY has a bad week due to risk aversion and the fall in equities.My trade is still active and even though the pair had a fall all the uptrend boundaries are intact and also the JPY crosses seems to hold. At the end of October  we had the BOJ announcing the QE measures for supporting the economy. Many tried to speculate on the currency, days before that the QE announcement would be much higher than excpected and this probable had serious effect on the early rise of the pair.

However , after the announcement the pair fall .Nonetheless, the fact that is still holding is also the rise in US treasury yields. This makes me to come to the conclusion that the main factor which moves this pair is US bond yileds and this should be taken under great account.
 


G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 12 NOV - 18 NOV


Κυριακή 4 Νοεμβρίου 2012

G14 OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 04 NOV - 09 NOV




END OF OCTOBER P/L REPORT [ 0 PIPS] - 1 ACTIVE TRADE STILL WORKING

This month I took only  one trade  (long USDJPY )which is still active.

Below is a graph of how i have done since the beginning of the year. I still have open  my longs in EURCHF and USDJPY.


 Below is my blotter since the beginning of the year









    LOT PRICE S/L T/P EXIT PRICE PIPS
EURCHF LONG 0,5 1,208 1,199   WORKING  
EURJPY LONG 0,1 100,68 99,2 103,2 103,2 252
EURJPY LONG 0,1 100,2 99,2 102,1 102,1 190
EURAUD LONG 0,1 1,237 1,229 1,245 1,229 -80
EURAUD LONG 0,1 1,23 1,212 1,255 1,255 150
USDJPY LONG 0,1 79,54 75,4 90 WORKING  
USDCHF LONG 0,1 91,6 90,5 93 93 140
EURAUD LONG 0,1 1,244 1,225 1,2795 1,2795 355
EURJPY LONG 0,1 106,22 105   105 -122
USDJPY LONG 0,1 80 78 84 78 -200
EURUSD LONG 0,1 1,2405 1,22 1,265 1,269 285
USDJPY LONG 0,1 78,95 77,5 83 WORKING