END OF FEBRUARY P / L REPOR [ +512 PIPS!]

End of February and I close this month with high profits. I have undertaken five trades from which 3 were succesfull, one failed and one is still working. Overall my successful trading this month resulted in a good rise to my equity (+ 512 pips!!!).

For this week I will not take any trades since I believe that markets are being a bit tricky. I have the opinion that markets are getting ready for a quick correction so I need some time to plan my trades accordingly. If something changes I will publish an article probably on Wednesday

Below there is a recoup of the trades I took this month

1. Long entry EURJPY @ 100.68 - S/L 99.2 - T/P 103.2--->  Closed at 103.2 (252 pips profit)
2. Long entry EURJPY @ 100.20 - S/L 99.2 - T/P 102.1--->  Closed at 102.1 (190 pips profit)
3. Long entry EURAUD @ 1.2370 - S/L 1.2290 - T/P 1.2450 --->  Closed at 1.2290 (80 pips loss)
4. Long entry EURAUD @ 1.2300 - S/L 1.2120 -T/P1.2550 --->  Closed at 1.2550 (150  pips profit)

I have also two open working positions

• Long entry EURCHF @ 1.21 - S/L 1.20 - T/P 1.35 --->  Still working
• Long entry USDJPY @ 79.64 - S/L 75.4 - T/P 90.0---> Still working

and one pending order

• Long entry USDJPY @ 78.60 - S/L 75.4 - T/P 81.5---> Still working

STRATEGY	POSEIDON
MONTH	FINAL PIPS	DRAWBACK IN EQUITY	TRADES
FEB	512	-80	5

 

 

3.TRADE IDEA FOR THIS WEEK: LONG USDJPY- UPDATED

last week i was stopped in one of my EURAUD order but the other is still working . Look at the previous post for more details.

This week we have the Eurogroup on Monday which will be the main event . My attention has been recently in the USDJPY pair which seems ready to break the range that has been traded in the last 8 months.BOJ has announced last week that will increase the QE and continue buy assets directly making yen substantially weaker.

I will take a long position a  placing a pending   at 78.60 with s/l  75.40 and t/p 81.50 valid for a week

I will also buy at the opening  at market and place s/l at 75.40 . This will be a strategic postion in adition  with my EURCHF with a target around  90 !

Orders:
1. USDJPY  BUY @ 78.60, S/L 75.40 , T/P 81.50
2. USDJPY BUY @ at the market opening, S/L 75.40 T/P 90

Updated  26/02/2012: I have opened a long position in USDJPY @ 79.54 in the beginning of the week. However due to a busy schedule havent had the time to update up till now

2.TRADE IDEA FOR THIS WEEK : LONG EURAUD - UPDATED 21/02/2012--26/02/20-HALF SUCCESS

This week is difficult since we have many events(Greece - Eurogroup) that move very fast and may affect the currencies. Looking at the EURAUD pair i  see that the currency is still in a downtrend but a strong retracement may have started . I am ready to take  a long position with s/l the all time low (1.2120) . My entry will be 1.2300(60 pips lower tahn the week's closing) and take profit  at 1.2550. Order will be valid for the next 4 days! I will also place another order buy at the market's opening with a tight s/l at 1.2290 and t/p at 1.2450

This is a risky trade since i am taking a position against trend, but i am betting  that the risk aversion mentality which seems to be the case for this week will give the pair a strong boost .

Orders:  

1. EURAUD BUY @ 1.23, S/L 1.2120, T/P 1.2550
2. EURAUD BUY @ the market opening, S/L 1.2290, T/P 1.2450

UPDATE 21/02/2012 :  I have already stopped out in my first order however my second is still valid
UPDATE 26/02/2012:   Second order closed in profit late this week

UPDATE ON MY EURCHF STRATEGY - SNB

Last week SNB announced the FX reserves as well as CPI data. Reserves have been slightly reduced indicating that SNB has not made any dramatically intervention. CPI data were also indicating that Swiss economy is in a bad shape and the country is facing deflation. 

The pair behaved as it should rise slightly amid expectations that time for the SNB to intervene drastically. Also Jordan (SNB) gave two interviews during the week indicating that SNB is active 24/7 in the markets and will not allow peg to be tested. In addition he said that they have additional measures to intervene and weaken the Swiss currency if is needed. This makes me think that they may announce at some point negative real rates!

So far I am convinced that SNB is on top of the situation and my trade is not in danger. However, they will face the ultimate test this week with all these things that happens in Greece.

Overall, I stick with my initial trade and make no other changes for this position

1.TRADE IDEA FOR THIS WEEK : LONG EURJPY - SUCCESS

My trade idea for this week is to go long eurjpy @ the opening of the market and add if falls to100.20.My first t/p would be  102.10 and then 103 probably. Although the pair is in a strong downtrend my wave analysis shows an upward momentum  which i will try to take advantage . This is a medium risk trade and not a big stake shoul be used so i will enter with two  10.000k contracts.

At the moment i am long eurchf,eurusd, and eurjpy. Due to some technical reasong i had to close all the position in audusd and got stopped out from the gbpusd. The outcome of those tow pairs i will consider it a square (since i gain from the aud but lost from the gbp) and not include them in my profit calculations

Overal looking at my portfolio i see that i am long euro which under the circumstances and the news i read every day it doesnt make sense . However that is what my technicl analysis and systems tell me to do so i do it without asking question . I am very curious for  the outcome, lets see......



Updated 12/02/2012 : Both trades reached profit targets and closed during the week.Total profit 432 pips

CHANGE OF STRATEGY FOR MY LONG EURCHF TRADE

Last September when SNB announced the minimum peg of eurchf at 1.20 many in the market were full of disbelief that SNB would be able to keep it without been broken  by the market players.

Me however, I was very confident that this time and this central bank will manage to do what it says and not let the 1.20 floor been broken for reason that I explain in my first article in this blog. As a result I undertook a long trade in the pair with a target at 1.35 minimum.

Since then of course, many things have changed with the most important being the resignation of Hildebrand after the accusation for his wife inside trading.  This has resulted to a lot of attacks in the currency by the speculators who try to break the floor now that the SNB has no official president. Of course unofficially Mr Jordan (no2 when Hildebrand was head) is the leader at the moment. 

Nonetheless, the currency has fallen up to 1.2035 during last week before rising slightly and closing the week to 1.2079. Since the beginning of the year we had no official announcement from SNB that is intervening directly in the FX market. Jordan and a few other officials have been trying so far to verbally intervene by restating SNB’s determination to keep the floor.

As I have already mentioned I have a large position long in the eurchf. All these events I mentioned forced me to rethink my strategy and start doubting about this trade. 

• The first think I decided to do is to put my s/l for half of my position at 1.1990 the other half I leave it at 1.2000.
• The second think is to watch for the data that are announced this week and how the currency will react. On Monday we have the release of currency reserves and on Friday CPI data!!!!!! (very very important)
• Finally we have the decision about Greece over the PSI deal this week

All the above factor and the way the currency will respond will help me taking my final decision next week on how to proceed with my position (close it or not). Until then I stay put and take advantage of the positive carry interest for one more week.